As 1995 comes to an end, Premier David Saul is promising calm following the Independence storm.

But with a forced Cabinet change and a troublesome back bench behind him, a still-sluggish economy before him, and a tough Budget expected in February, Dr. Saul's plucky optimism could be sorely tested in 1996.

The year 1995 was one of Bermuda's stormiest ever, both meteorologically and politically speaking.

Forced out of the Premier's office by the heat of his failed Independence initiative, Sir John Swan headed for the kitchen. By year's end, Sir John and fellow United Bermuda Party MP Maxwell Burgess were looking to re-open the McDonald's franchise at the former American Base.

"Even if I could do everything all over again, I would do the same thing,'' Sir John said as he resigned after more than 13 years as Premier. "I've no regrets whatsoever.'' Independence opponents Dr. Clarence Terceira and Mr. C.V. (Jim) Woolridge were also adjusting to the view from the Government back bench.

Mr. Woolridge, defeated by Dr. Saul in a two-man race to succeed Sir John, watched quietly as new Tourism Minister Mr. David Dodwell tried to turn the Island's sagging visitor arrival numbers around. Mr. Woolridge's supporters predicted that Mr. Dodwell would be helped by resources that were unavailable during his long tenure.

Other new faces in Cabinet were Information and Technology Minister John Barritt, Legislative Affairs and Women's Issues Minister Sen. Lynda Milligan-Whyte, Community and Culture Minister Sen. Yvette Swan, and Mr. Tim Smith, who was "re-assigned'' to the Ministry of Youth and Sport after loose lips brought his stint in Environment and Planning to an early end.

Outraged by the defeat of Government nominee Mrs. Grace Bell for Deputy Speaker, Mr. Smith confided to a colleague that he felt the UBP MPs who did not support her were a "nasty'' and "wicked'' bunch.

"He's got an appeal in to me for an illegal house,'' Mr. Smith told former Cabinet Minister Mr. Irving Pearman about backbencher Mr. Trevor Moniz. "I haven't even looked at. I ain't going to look at it for now. The naughty b*****.'' But Mr. Smith had failed to switch off his microphone. His comments went over the airwaves for Mr. Moniz and everyone else to hear, and the peace and tranquillity Dr. Saul had promised was shattered.

Newly-named Deputy Premier Jerome Dill, who took over the Education hotseat from Dr. Terceira, had yet to announce promised changes to Government's senior secondary school plan by Christmas. Meanwhile, concerns remained about the big new school under construction at Prospect and plans to move Dellwood Primary School children to Northlands Secondary School.

The forced departure of two senior Police officers as part of Commissioner Colin Coxall's shake-up of the force also brought accusations and recriminations with which to end the year.

Base takeover costs were more than $10 million and mounting, merchants trumpeted their problems through pre- and post-Christmas sales, tourism remained in the doldrums and the public was outraged over the handling of recent Planning appeals.

But none of those worries compared with the fury unleashed in the lead-up to the Independence referendum.

An Independence Green Paper released in February was criticised as having a pro-Independence slant, even by Independence proponent Mr. Walton Brown. Then, Government had to withdraw two of its Independence TV spots amid similar complaints.

Sir John got into a public slagging match with Bank of Bermuda chairman Mr.

Eldon Trimingham, then horrified UBP MPs by publicly endorsing a longstanding Opposition call for single-seat constituencies and joining hands with Mr.

Philip Perinchief of the Progressive Labour Party and Mr. Gilbert Darrell of the National Liberal Party at a pro-Independence rally.

Sir John capped the Independence debate by promising to resign unless there was a "yes'' vote. Mr. Pearman, Mr. Burgess, and former Health and Social Services Minister Quinton Edness followed suit.

"I would not call it blackmail,'' Sir John said. "What I would call it is putting my neck on the line.'' But it was reminiscent of March, when Mr. Pearman and four other Government MPs threatened to resign their seats and force a general election unless the entire UBP caucus supported the Independence Referendum Act.

While the business community called for an early date to get the referendum over with, Sir John would have preferred a December vote. But when Mr. Moniz said the finally-agreed-upon polling day of August 15 had "nothing to recommend it,'' little did he know that a hurricane would hit the night before.

The vote was delayed one day, to August 16, but there were allegations that Sir John tried to take advantage of the tempest to delay the vote until Christmas. Opposition Leader Mr. Frederick Wade and Government backbenchers pressed for a Commission of Inquiry, which Dr. Saul first rejected, then reluctantly agreed to. It found no evidence of political interference or wrongdoing by Sir John or others.

Mr. Wade, who withstood a leadership challenge from Sen. Terry Lister late in 1994, was able to keep most of the PLP in line, despite his call for a referendum boycott which Mr. Perinchief and other PLP supporters considered "a political error.'' As Independence opponents claimed a clear victory in light of the 74 percent "no'' vote to Independence, Mr. Wade claimed a smaller win, due to the 59 percent voter turn-out.

In the House of Assembly, the PLP attempted to take the initiative away from the UBP by bringing forward more motions of its own. But House rules and Government tactics combined to frustrate the Opposition "programme.'' Only two of six PLP motions had been debated when the House rose for Christmas, one of them after it was amended by Government.

The eligibility of PLP Warwick West MP Dr. Ewart Brown to sit in the House was cast into doubt when it was revealed in June that he had obtained US citizenship while living in Los Angeles. Although Attorney General Mr. Elliott Mottley said the time to challenge Dr. Brown's 1993 election had long passed, Speaker of the House Mr. Ernest DeCouto said the matter remained "in limbo'' before the House Rules and Privileges committee at year end.

Meanwhile, it was revealed that PLP MP Mr. Ottiwell Simmons would be stepping down after more than 20 years as president of the Bermuda Industrial Union.

With no representation in the House, the National Liberal Party continued to spin its wheels in 1995, losing former party president Mr. Geoff Parker over Mr. Darrell's pro-Independence stance.

While the NLP was unable to take advantage of widespread unhappiness with both major parties over Independence, the return of former candidate Mr. Charles Jeffers and the likelihood he would take over the leadership once Mr. Darrell retires gave its supporters hope for 1996.

As Dr. Saul continues to harp on improving "the peace, prosperity, and welfare of these Islands, he might do well to repeat some words of his predecessor.

"We didn't say,'' Sir John said in 1995, "that every decision during this period...would be a popular one.''