The cost of living like an American - high fuel prices and low interest rates
On coping with economic changes in lifestyles - how some US communities and citizenry are dealing with high fuel prices, high food costs, real estate markets, and low interest rates? We are on a family visit to see the young grandchildren in the United States. I have been looking forward to this trip to take personal economic stock of these issues. While my observations are limited to my own experiences, they are also not what I thought I would see.
Airport traffic seemed subdued, but America is still driving the highways. New Hampshire is a vacation state for much of the eastern seaboard. There was significant traffic heading north on a Friday evening, not quite like past experiences - stop and go from the border - but still significant numbers of cars in spite of the cost of gas, and increased road tolls. SUVs abound, with slightly more smaller cars in evidence, as well as some of the hybrid type vehicles. Of course, if you own a gas-guzzler, your chances of selling it in the open market today for even the cost of your auto loan is probably pretty slim. Given that lack of opportunity, the owner is stuck with a handsome large car that will deplete wallets at $150 to $200 a week.
Towns in New Hampshire, Vermont, Maine, many parts of Massachusetts and upstate New York have existed for many years as feeder communities to large metropolitan centres. You cannot get there from home easily, cheaply, or quickly. Rural dwellers, particularly those heavily reliant on two or more incomes, are very susceptible to increased transportation costs and will feel tremendous pain at the pumps. Bermuda residents may not truly realise how expensive it is to drive 25 miles just for necessities, nor can they comprehend the complete lack of access to public transportation. Suffer the loss of a vehicle through repossession from late payments, or mechanical failure and the ability to earn your way up can be seriously impeded.
Wood, cordwood, everywhere. Northeastern winters can be brutally cold; a January month at 30 below zero Fahrenheit is common. Heating oil prices have also gone through the roof. Everywhere, everyone it seems is laying in four to six cords of wood for winter. Older less well-insulated homes will use as much as 10 to 12 cords a year. While some brave people still cut down their own trees, generally, a cord of starts out with the delivery of a cherry picker load of harvested logs measuring 18 to 24 feet long and weighing many tonnes. This massive log mountain is then cut (with a chainsaw), split, and stacked into (18-inch) logs in a cord 4ft X 4ft X 8ft.
At $250 per cord, wood warms you three times; when you cut it, when you split it and when you burn it. It is messy, tiring, and dangerous. The log mountain can roll, crushing limbs; hands resemble lumberjacks; legs get bruised chopping splits that ricocheting at angles, and fancy nail jobs are out. Creosote builds up in chimneys and can ignite, burning a home to the ground. A wood fuel reliant family must spend time each day after a full time job splitting and gathering enough wood to carry them through each winter's night. You also need a stick shift four-wheel-drive truck for hauling. For many years, my husband (God bless him and his skill with a chainsaw) and I generated our own wood supply. It was a stark contrast to the Bermuda convenience lifestyle where one heads home from work - hitting a switch to provide instance cooling or heating. Still, wood fuel is considerably cheaper than burning oil and can warm your heart on a freezing winter morning.
America is selectively shopping. And much of America is for sale. In spite of bright displays, large department stores and specialty shops appeared somewhat deserted. I surmised that this was also partly due to centralising check out functions (using fewer employees). Walmart - five percent of the United States GDP (gross domestic product) and wholesale bulk-buying warehouses were very, very busy. Every retail merchant was pushing a deal to induce you to apply for yet another credit card, or offering gas coupons as a shopping rebate. According to some statistics, merchants profit more from the use of consumer credit cards than from merchandise sales. The question is, though, does America need more credit card debt?
What is America buying? Flat screen TV's, cameras, and small electronics, inexpensive household items, green products (if inexpensive) and food. Families have indicated that they will still entertain and travel, but it will be closer to home.
Biggest surprise, clothes pegs! Featured prominently at the end of shopping aisles - displays of clothes pegs for that free sunshine. There was a time when one could not find these little wooden soldiers anywhere. Are we seeing real evidence of major demographic shift in the way we will live our lives going forward?
Where and what is America eating? Most recently, Bennigans, a moderately priced chain restaurant filed for bankruptcy. We do not know if others will take the tumble. This is a fiercely competitive market for a population that is learning to save again. In the future, there may not be quite as many folks who eat 'out' for every meal.
The American-pie type eateries appeared to be surviving, but at a cost. Portion sizes are smaller; more fillers, bread, French fries etc are used, prices are a bit higher, and for the medium priced dining establishments that are still very successful, service is very good. They want your business. In some cases, due to the higher cost of groceries, it is cheaper to purchase a family meal at a fast food restaurant. Quantity versus quality counts when times, but not tummies, are lean.
Contrary to news media, not every real estate market is poor. Location, location, location and very good public schools are the name of the game.
Portions of the northeast have seen a five percent drop in value in a year compared to more than 15 percent in the Southwest.
Homes are selling although on a slower scale according to real estate and construction friends.
Again, the reputation of the firm and quality of the building play a part in the process. Reviewing the National Association of Homebuilders recent statistics shows that the average real estate market value of a residential home nationwide has risen slightly and the unsold inventory is starting to drop.
Is the end in sight or will it be slow climb back?
Not having a crystal ball, there will be no speculation on my part.
It appears from this trip that from what I experienced, Americans are watching their purses carefully, are budgeting their spending for practical purposes and focusing on making wise consumer decisions.
Martha Harris Myron CPA -NH1929, CFP® -67184 (US licences) TEP - Society of Trust and Estate Practitioners. She is a Senior Wealth Manager at Argus Financial Ltd., specialising in comprehensive financial solutions and investment advisory services for individual private clients and their families, business owners, endowments and trusts. DirectLine: 294-5709 Confidential e-mail can be directed to mmyron@argusfinancial.bm The article expresses the opinion of the author alone. Under no circumstances is the content of this article to be taken as specific individual investment advice, nor as a recommendation to buy/ sell any investment product. The Editor of The Royal Gazette has final right of approval over headlines, content, and length/brevity of article.