WITH a relatively quiet hurricane season so far and Hurricane Dean forecast to pass well to our south some time next week, Bermudians are drawing a collective sigh of relief.

Still, Dr. Mark Guishard, director of the Bermuda Weather Service, has warned residents to be wary of complacency and reminded the public that the island is not nearly out of the woods yet.

"One really can't say anything about the activity of a season until at least August," he said this week. "In fact, historically September is the peak of hurricane season."

Meanwhile, Bermudians have little to fear from Dean which yesterday strengthened into the 2007 Atlantic storm season's first hurricane as it raced towards the Caribbean. By early yesterday it had top sustained winds of 80 mph, was expected to strengthen further in the next few days and could pass to the south of Jamaica on its way Mexico's Yucatan peninsula as a dangerous Category 4 storm.

Interestingly enough, another hurricane called Dean brushed past Bermuda in 1989 ¿ the first storm since Emily, two years before. Bermudians, however, need not prepare for another visit this year.

Speaking to the Mid-Ocean News on Wednesday, Dr. Guishard said: "I think there is little chance of Dean turning north. Storms like this have to be further north by this point to be picked up by the southwesterly steering flow. None of the computer models have Dean re-curving towards the island."

Yet, according to Dr. Guishard, that is not a licence for complacency. In addition to the standard hurricane preparation, he offered the following the advice: "The thing you should be prepared for after is power outages. The thing you should prepare for before the storm hits is the high winds, and if you're on the coast the high sea levels and battering waves.

"The things I advise for all property-owners is to have something to cover their windows ¿ whether that's storm shutters or secure plywood. Having glass and other debris blowing through one's house is exceptionally dangerous.

"In Fabian, we had wind speeds here that started to rip the plywood we had attached to our windows off. Since then we have proper storm shutters. If you're on the coastline during the storm I would really suggest you go inland."

In the event that a hurricane does threaten Bermuda this year, locals can take comfort that Dr. Guishard and his team will have it under close watch.

"Our responsibilities are for Bermuda itself. Our job is to take the forecast the NHC (National Hurricane Centre) issues and add value to it by predicting what the effects on the local weather conditions are going to be. We are the only agency that has authority to issue watches and warnings concerning hurricanes.

"The NHC in Miami is in charge of forecasting the evolution, track and intensity of all tropical disturbances in the Atlantic.

"They are the experts, they have the equipment and knowledge to be able to specifically look at each storm and what it's doing. We even send our forecasters to the NHC as part of their training.

"We work very closely with them. We are on the phone at least four times a day if there is a hurricane threatening Bermuda."

With the recently-installed Doppler Radar apparatus on Cooper's Island, the BWS has come a long way in the past 20 years.

"Back in 1987 the US Navy was in charge of all forecasting in Bermuda. Since then BAS Serco has taken over all their previous responsibilities. The thing about Emily was that it hit Bermuda on a Friday. Thursday night it was a tropical storm and was southwest of Bermuda moving north.

"It took a very sharp right-hand turn and intensified into a hurricane. So people woke up to hurricane warnings and being advised that the storm was imminent. That's where that perception came from ¿ the fact that the warnings were posted overnight but also that the track forecast wasn't great the day before.

"Contrast that with Florence, and a good 72 hours away we were already expecting that this storm was going to affect Bermuda."

Hurricane Florence ¿ a minimal Category 1 storm ¿ brushed the island last September but caused very little damage. Yet, anyone who experienced Fabian in 2003 ¿ or even Emily 16 years earlier ¿ will know that, as hurricanes go, they come much worse.

"Usually by the time a tropical system gets to our latitude it starts to lose its tropical character, which is exactly what was happening to Fabian. The chances of (a Category Four or Five hurricane) striking Bermuda are very unlikely.

"That's not to say it could never happen. If it were to happen ¿ well, you saw the damage from Fabian. Basically, you're looking at another order of magnitude after that. You could very well expect damage to the runway ¿ during Fabian, the runway down at the airport here was flooded. When crews went out to pick up debris from the runway, they had to remove fish as well.

"You can imagine if you have that level of water during a Category 3 storm, it's going to be far worse in a Category 4 or 5."