Home sales, rates may extend Santa rally
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Investors have only a sprinkling of economic data on their plates in the last full week of 2007, but if the numbers come through as expected, stocks may extend Friday's early Santa Claus rally.
One caveat: Light volume in the holiday-shortened week could affect prices to a greater extent than usual in the event of any surprises.
Stock and bond markets will close early today, Christmas Eve, a day when there are no significant economic releases scheduled.
After the Christmas holiday, the week's major economic releases are bunched into Thursday and Friday.
Quarterly earnings reports are in a lull until after the new year begins.
A report on new home sales for November is due Friday. According to a Reuters poll of economists, the median forecast is for sales to fall to an annual rate of 720,000 units in November, from 728,000 in October.
The data from the Commerce Department also tracks the prices of new homes.
"Home prices are still falling," said Wayne Wicker, chief investment officer for the Vantagepoint Funds in Washington, D.C. "Potential buyers are on the sidelines and the market is not stabilising yet."
Wicker also thinks official statistics do not track homes that are taken off the market as sellers become discouraged.
"I think there is unofficial inventory out there," he said.
Another look at home prices will come when the S&P/Case-Shiller National Home Price Index is released Wednesday.
In addition to the housing numbers and other data due during the week, market interest rates are an important factor as the world's central banks work to loosen the credit crunch that had its origins in subprime housing loans.
The London interbank offered rate, a key global benchmark, has been declining but not as much as some would like to see.
Ordinarily the one-month Libor rate is about 15 to 20 basis points higher than the fed funds rate, said John Praveen, chief investment strategist for Prudential International Investments Advisers LLC in Newark, New Jersey.
The Federal Reserve cut the fed funds rate for overnight bank loans by 25 basis points to 4.25 percent on December 11. The one-month dollar-denominated Libor rate, a benchmark for many kinds of loans, including adjustable-rate mortgages, was fixed on Friday at 4.86500 percent, about 60 basis points above the fed funds rate.
"If these rates remain elevated, that will have the potential of hurting the real economy," Praveen said.
Praveen said the Fed's special auctions to lend billions to US banks have so far been good but not overwhelming.
Nevertheless, Praveen thinks stocks can hold their gains and perhaps add a little more in the few trading sessions left in 2007.
If the week's data supports the view that the economy is not going into a recession, and Libor, which had been above five percent in early December, falls some more, there could even be a year-end rally, he said.
For the past week, the Dow Jones industrial average rose 0.83 percent, the Standard & Poor's 500 Index gained 1.13 percent and the Nasdaq Composite Index increased 2.13 percent.
With just five trading sessions left in 2007, the major US stock indexes are still higher for the year: The Dow is up 7.92 percent, while the S&P 500 is up 4.67 percent and the Nasdaq is up 11.46 percent.
Solid earnings from technology companies fueled some of last week's gains. Companies such as Oracle Corp, Adobe Systems and BlackBerry maker Research in Motion all reported profits that beat expectations.
Friday's explosive rally in the stock market came after the government's report that personal spending rose by a larger-than-expected 1.1 percent in November, the biggest increase in more than two years.
Other data in the new week includes durable goods orders for November, due Thursday. The median forecast is for a rise of 2.0 percent, according to economists polled by Reuters.
Also on Thursday, the Conference Board reports its consumer confidence index, which has been declining for several months. In the Reuters poll, the index is seen slipping further to 86.5 from 87.3.
A report on December business activity in the US Midwest is due on Friday from the National Association of Purchasing Management-Chicago. The NAPM-Chicago index is seen falling to 51.8 in December from 52.9 in November.
A reading above 50 indicates expansion.