PartnerRe could pay about $100 million to cover claims related to flooding in eastern and central Europe, according to estimates released by the reinsurer on Friday.

PartnerRe said the figure was "very preliminary" and the actual amount would be clearer when floodwaters subside completely.

When that will happen remains unclear: the River Vltava, which traverses Prague, began to recede last Wednesday the river Elbe is not expected to peak in the German city of Magdeburg until tomorrow.

PartnerRe is more heavily exposed to events in Europe than most Bermuda reinsurers, having bought SAFR, a French reinsurer, in 1997 and Winterthur Re, which was based in Zurich, the following year. It also has close ties to European clients through Swiss Re, its original sponsor.

According to PartnerRe's figures, 40 percent of its premiums came from European clients in 2001, compared to 42 percent from North America. "As a significant reinsurer of European catastrophe risks, we expect this to be a substantial event for PartnerRe," Patrick Thiele, the company's president and chief executive officer, said in a press release.

Yesterday, Morgan Stanley cut earnings forecasts for the reinsurer from $5.55 per share to $3.60 for the year and predicted that at the end of the third quarter, PartnerRe would report a loss of 61 cents per share instead of $1.34 in earnings, as was previously expected.

Analysts for the investment bank also said that ACE, IPC Re, Renaissance Re and XL Capital could be exposed to flooding claims, but their exposure would likely be smaller relative to their size than PartnerRe's.

The floods, which have inundated parts of the Czech Republic, Germany, Austria, Slovakia, Russia, Hungary and Romania, have killed about 100 people and forced tens of thousands to evacuate their homes.

Some areas have recorded more rainfall this month than they have for any month in more than a century, while the Elbe River in Germany has risen to the highest level ever recorded, breaking a record set in 1845.

The river's normal summer level is about six and a half feet, but on Saturday it rose to 30 feet, 10 inches.

The chief economist of insurer Allianz Group told Sunday's Bild am Sonntag newspaper in Germany that overall flood damage in that country alone would amount to over 10 billion euros (about $10 billion), including economic losses.

Allianz, Europe's biggest insurer, said it will not be able to give figures about its own exposure before next Monday. Ivo Menzinger, head of the flood group at the world's number two reinsurer Swiss Re, told the Reuters news agency that the insured share of the losses could amount to between a tenth and fifth of the economic losses.

In its release, PartnerRe said insurance losses could reach $1.5 billion. Various reasons explain the disparity between the insured losses and economic losses, which will force state and regional governments to pay for some of the damage with public funds.

Gregor Kozak, a spokesman for the Austrian Insurance Association, told Reuters that insurers will not pay for all of the damage in Austria because flood damage compensation is often very low, such as 3,600 euros ($3,538) for a standard family house.

The association expects insured losses in that country to total $100 million. In certain areas of Europe, homeowners cannot even get flood insurance because insurers deem the risk too high.

But in flood-prone eastern Germany, where cities such as Dresden have been badly affected, insurers are likely to receive thousands of claims from homeowners because many of them are covered by policies created under the state-controlled insurance schemes of the former communist government. Much of the insurance cost will be shouldered by reinsurers who assume some of the risks of insurance companies that sell policies to consumers.

Insurers and reinsurers could decide to raise premiums if they determine that risks are rising, as they did after September 11.

Chris Rathbone, insurance analyst at Williams de Broe in London, told CNN that premiums would keep rising for at least the next two years.

PartnerRe's $100 million estimate is a quarter of the $400 million the reinsurer said it would pay out for claims resulting from the September 11 terrorist attacks, the most costly event for insurers and reinsurers ever.

The company made the announcement after trading finished on the New York Stock Exchange Friday. Yesterday, the company's stock price, which has moved little since flooding began August 2, fell 61 cents to $47.66 on the New York Stock Exchange.

Despite predicting lower earnings, the Morgan Stanley analysts' price target for PartnerRe shares remained at $63. They said investing in the company was "attractive" at the current share price.