Movie critics are constantly pestered for their Oscar picks, even though their track record is probably no better than your average $2 horse-player at Aqueduct.

Here are my five sure-fire, guaranteed-or-your-money-back predictions for tomorrow night?s ceremony in Tinseltown:

1) Jon Stewart will joke about Dick Cheney?s hunting prowess.

2) Keira Knightley will show less skin than she does on the cover of Vanity Fair.

3) Jack Nicholson will sit up front looking bored, wishing he were watching Kobe at the Staples Center instead of Heath and Joaquin at the Kodak Theatre.

4) At least one winner will cry.

5) Ninety percent of the TV audience will fall asleep before it?s over.

As for the actual winners, your guess is as good as mine. I?ve never won an Oscar pool, walked on a red carpet or been invited to one of those Hollywood parties where the food bill exceeds the GNP of Bolivia. Nevertheless, in the spirit of Nostradamus and Roger Ebert, here?s my Oscar tip sheet:

Best Picture

Nominees: ?Brokeback Mountain,? ?Capote,? ?Crash,? ?Good Night, and Good Luck,? ?Munich.?

Skinny: ?Brokeback,? which has done for gay cowboys what ?The Godfather? did for mobsters, dominated the pre-Oscar awards and is the odds-on favourite. Critics? darling ?Crash? has an outside shot at an upset, even though it was released in May and was largely forgotten before the Oscar nominations came out.

Should Win: ?Crash.?

Will Win: ?Brokeback Mountain.?

Best Actor

Nominees: Philip Seymour Hoffman (?Capote?), Terrence Howard (?Hustle & Flow?), Heath Ledger (?Brokeback Mountain?), Joaquin Phoenix (?Walk the Line?), David Straithairn (?Good Night, and Good Luck?).

Skinny: Hoffman (Truman Capote), Phoenix (Johnny Cash) and Straithairn (Edward R. Murrow) all play famous dead people, and Howard is a Memphis pimp who wants to be a rap star. Hoffman is favoured for his eerie reincarnation of Capote, but Ledger can?t be counted out for his closeted, tortured ranch hand.

Should Win: Philip Seymour Hoffman.

Will Win: Philip Seymour Hoffman.

Best Actress

Nominees: Judi Dench (?Mrs. Henderson Presents?), Felicity Huffman (?Transamerica?), Keira Knightley (?Pride & Prejudice?), Charlize Theron (?North Country?), Reese Witherspoon (?Walk the Line?).

Skinny: A two-actress race between Witherspoon and Huffman. Witherspoon plays a tough-minded woman who tries to tame her boozing, pill-popping man, while Huffman plays a mushy man who?s trying to become a full-fledged woman.

Should Win: Felicity Huffman.

Will Win: Reese Witherspoon.

Best Supporting Actor

Nominees: George Clooney (?Syriana?), Matt Dillon (?Crash?), Paul Giamatti (?Cinderella Man?), Jake Gyllenhaal (?Brokeback Mountain?), William Hurt (?A History of Violence?).

Skinny: Wide-open category. Clooney shows off an impressive beard and beer gut, Hurt gets laughs as a ruthless crime boss, Dillon plays a sympathetic racist cop, and Gyllenhaal is part of Hollywood?s most celebrated couple this side of Brad and Angelina. The only weak link is Giamatti, who?s stuck with a clich?d role as a gruff boxing manager.

Should Win: Matt Dillon.

Will Win: George Clooney.

Best Supporting Actress

Nominees: Amy Adams (?Junebug?), Catherine Keener (?Capote?), Frances McDormand (?North Country?), Rachel Weisz (?The Constant Gardener?), Michelle Williams (?Brokeback Mountain?).

Skinny: Disqualify McDormand because she?s already won an Oscar for a character with a Minnesota accent (?Fargo?), eliminate Adams because nobody saw her movie, and scratch Keener and Williams because their films are dominated by men. That leaves Weisz, who recovers nicely after dying in the first five minutes of ?The Constant Gardener.?

Should Win: Rachel Weisz.

Will Win: Rachel Weisz.

Best Director

Nominees: Ang Lee (?Brokeback Mountain?), Bennett Miller (?Capote?), Paul Haggis (?Crash?), George Clooney (?Good Night, and Good Luck?), Steven Spielberg (?Munich?).

Skinny: See Best Picture.

Should Win: Paul Haggis.

Will Win: Ang Lee.

The Academy Awards will be broadcast on Walt Disney Co.?s ABC television network on tomorrow at 9 p.m. Bermuda time.