Analyst: GM shares may be worthless in a year
NEW YORK (Bloomberg) — General Motors Corp. plummeted to its lowest level in 62 years yesterday, after a Deutsche Bank AG analyst downgraded the shares on Monday, saying they may be worthless in a year.
"Even if GM succeeds in averting a bankruptcy, we believe that the company's future path is likely to be bankruptcy-like," Deutsche Bank's Rod Lache wrote today in a note. The New York analyst recommended selling the shares and cut his 12-month price target to zero. He previously advised holding the stock.
The decline shows mounting pessimism that a turnaround will succeed at the largest US automaker amid the credit crisis and the worst sales market in at least 15 years. GM is petitioning the US government for aid after saying last week it may not have enough cash to operate this year. A bankruptcy typically wipes out the value of a company's shares.
Barclays Capital and Buckingham Research Group cut their price targets for GM to $1. GM, based in Detroit, lost 44 cents, or 13 percent, to $2.92 in yesterday's New York Stock Exchange composite trading. That was the company's lowest close since November 22, 1946, according to Global Financial Data in Los Angeles.
"We believe any government assistance would likely significantly dilute GM's equity," said Chicago-based Barclays analyst Brian Johnson, who reduced GM to "underweight" from "equal weight" and lowered his price target from $4. GM, Ford and Chrysler LLC, owned by Cerberus Capital Management LP, appeared over the weekend to be moving closer to gaining that federal aid. US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi of California and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid of Nevada wrote Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson to urge that bank-bailout funds be opened up for loans to automakers. Rahm Emanuel, chief of staff to President-elect Barack Obama, said the US auto industry "essential" to the economy.
While Emanuel stopped short of endorsing such a plan, the White House today signalled its opposition, saying aid to the industry wasn't discussed during the debate on the banking bailout. Congress may take up automaker assistance when it returns next week.
"GM's only salvation is a capital injection from the government," said Buckingham analyst Joseph Amaturo in a note today, cutting the automaker's share-price target to $1 from $3. "The company liquidity position is dwindling rapidly given the automotive cash burn," said the New York-based analyst, who rates GM shares "underperform."
"Shareholders are likely to be wiped out, effectively," Bruce Zirinsky, co-chairman of the financial restructuring department of Cadwalader, Wickersham & Taft LLP, said in a phone interview from New York.