year is substantially worse than last year.'' These words from Mr. Andrew Trimingham, at one of Front Street's flagship stores, may not hold true for every retailer or hotelier on the Island. There is some way to go before 1992 takes over from 1991 in the tourist industry's nightmares. But the first pillar of Bermuda's economy, weakened by unrelenting buffeting from the US, is looking distinctly shaky.

"The facts are there for everyone to see,'' Finance Minister the Hon. David Saul told The Royal Gazette . "Last year was the worst year for tourism since 1973 and this year the overall figures are slightly down on last year.

"The first quarter was terrible but the second quarter was very good. What we're hoping for is that this third quarter, from August to October, will pick up. Hopefully, by the end of the year we will just push past last year -- I don't want to see two bad years in a row.

"But even if we do that, tourist spending is down. That's the main problem.'' Tourism director Mr. Gary Phillips has just had more grim figures land on his desk. "Based on actual spending in the first quarter of this year, air visitors spent about $900 per capita,'' he said. "Last year they spent about $40 more.

"There was initially some indication that the recession would abate and that people would travel a lot more. But my fears at the moment are that the recession is holding hard and fast.

"Unless there's a dramatic turnaround in the US economy, then I suspect that we will probably be roughly on a par with last year. But it's not a Bermuda problem. If other destinations were doing very, very well then I would be much more concerned than I am. We have to look at the universe in which tourism is functioning these days.'' Americans were finding it more attractive to vacation at home, said Mr. Phillips, thanks to airline price wars which had spilled over into the big hotel chains. Added to this was the problem of predicting future business, with long-term booking unpopular. Even guessing what would happen later this month was difficult, he said.

"The thing that we need to do is make sure that we don't allow the product that we have to deteriorate. We also have to look at ways of even improving the product -- at what makes people happy, the quality of the service and the quality of goods that are sold. We have to try to meet expectations.'' In this recession visitors were motivated by price, he said, and hotels could take advantage of this by advertising tactically, stressing the cost of their vacations.

Another tactic, increasingly taken by Bermuda's hotels as recession bites deeper, is to offer special deals. One hotel with this philosophy is Marriott's Castle Harbour, where general manager Mr. Roger Borsink enjoyed a relatively healthy occupancy rate of around 80 percent through July.

The hotel is offering a plan where a family staying five nights in a de-luxe room gets a free flight for one parent and free food for the children. Other deals are aimed at honeymooners -- where Bermuda has a tiny 2.8 percent of the US market -- and golfers.

Even with such special deals, business is hardly booming. "We're really about the same as last year, which was down significantly,'' said Mr. Borsink. "The good thing is that it hasn't gone down this year. We've got a number of promotions on and those are keeping the occupancy up. Without doing those things it would deteriorate further.'' At the Reefs Beach Club, Bermuda Hotel Association president Mr. David Dodwell is also finding occupancy rates holding up so far this year. "We're holding our own,'' he said. "We continue to do fairly well as one of the smaller properties, but I do know that that has not been mirrored by all of the smaller hotels and not by the large ones as well.'' At Sonesta Beach, manager Mr. Dennis Tucker admitted: "We're running behind last year, between seven and 10 percent. I don't particularly think there will be any upsurge.

"We're running all sorts of special or promotional packages but they're not helping our occupancy to any great extent. We're running at occupancies in the mid-70s. I don't think there's a lot that can be done.'' Mr. Brian Alkon, owner of the Mermaid Beach Club, had a "fantastic'' June, with 91 percent occupancy, followed by 67 percent last month.

"For August we're looking at around 73 percent,'' he said. "It's the darkness before the dawn. If the economy starts to show some recovery before the first quarter in the year. Compared to last year we will probably end up doing better or the same, which is lousy.'' On Front Street, fortunes are equally mixed. "The people with money are not coming and the general result is that spending is down,'' said Mr. Trimingham.

"Sales are depressed generally throughout the store but the high end clothing is more depressed than other things.

"It was our traditional strength but we're not able to offer the kind of competitive prices that we used to. The rest of the world has reduced duties dramatically and we're paying more than we did 20 years ago.

"This year is substantially worse than last year, and last year was not exactly a rosy year. It was a disaster.'' Suggestions that Front Street merchants should open longer hours were fruitless, he added. Bermudians deserved their holidays, and if managers tried to tempt them to work by paying double time, it would not be viable.

"I would hope that America will get out of its recession after its election and maybe things will look up a little bit next year. But I don't think we're ever going to go back to the way it used to be. I think Bermuda is saying goodbye to its heydays, and we have done it ourselves. We have just got much too expensive.'' At Sail On, however, owner Mr. Hugh Watlington believes he has found a way to aid survival. "I don't think the tourists are spending quite as much -- we used to be pretty crazy here and things aren't the way they used to be. But we're doing about the same as last year.

"Our staff try to put themselves out. I think you've got to do that when things start to slow down. You have to show real good service.'' MR. GARY PHILLIPS -- `recession is holding hard and fast.' MR. DENNIS TUCKER -- `promotional packages not helping.'