The lines have now been drawn on Bermuda’s political battlefield and they don’t make comfortable viewing for some MPs.

But for the Island’s two major parties, it could be a case of what you gain in one hand you lose from the other as hundreds of people find themselves switching constituencies under a redesigned electoral map.

Possible winners include United Bermuda Party Senator Michael Dunkley, whose bid to throw Patrice Minors out of Smith’s North suddenly looks a lot more realistic after that constituency took in a host of traditional UBP backers.

However, early estimates indicate that of the ten to 12 constituencies which can expect meaningful impact from the boundary changes, three or four look good for the Progressive Labour Party, three or four look good for the UBP and another three or four could go either way.

The more things change the more they stay the same? Not quite, because none of this takes into account people’s voting preferences changing or the impact of Bermuda Democratic Alliance a party expected to focus on key marginals, where it will be much more likely to cream off votes from the UBP than the PLP. Some say this could give the PLP the chance to increase its total of seats to an unprecedented 30.

A number of pundits yesterday named PLP backbencher Wayne Furbert as one of the biggest beneficiaries of the shake-up.

Assuming he stays in Hamilton West as a PLP candidate, the former Opposition Leader will gain PLP voters in the east and lose UBP voters in the west the perfect scenario for a man who used to be in the UBP but now bats for the PLP.

Deputy UBP Leader Trevor Moniz believes Mr. Furbert decided to cross the floor after seeing the new boundaries, telling The Royal Gazette: ”Hamilton West becomes much more PLP. That’s why he joined them.”

Mr. Furbert, who maintains he joined the PLP because he believes that’s the only way he could make a contribution to Bermuda, responded incredulously: “I never saw the boundary changes until after I made the switch. That’s absolutely ludicrous.”The area I pick up is an area I used to have a long time ago under dual seats. I’ve had a relationship with those people since the early 80s.”

According to Mr. Moniz, another winner is Sports Minister Glenn Blakeney, whose Devonshire North Central constituency had been earmarked as winnable by the UBP.

The official Opposition had deemed Mr. Blakeney weakened by “The Ewart Factor” on account of his loyalty to a Premier struggling badly in the polls and hoped Albertha Waite could go one better after running him close in 2007.

But Mr. Moniz said: ”That probably becomes slightly tougher for us. We lose a bit in Frog Lane and the west side of Loyal Hill. That goes from ‘no chance’ to ‘stronger’ for the PLP.”

Suggesting he’d given away a UBP secret, Mr. Moniz said: ”I will be shot for saying that,” and added that the party still has a chance in Devonshire North Central.

Smith’s North, having shifted to the east, loses a chunk of hard-core PLP voters in Loyal Hill while gaining UBP backers on the other side.

Mrs. Minors told this newspaper: ”With regard to any perceived effect on Constituency Ten, Smith’s North, my approach to reaching the voter will not change. If not on the canvassing trail, I am in constant email communication with constituents who regularly contact me at pkminors logic.bm.

”Since my original election as representative of Smith’s North, I have sought to represent all constituents. I will not waver in this stance, for it is the duty of all elected Members of Parliament.

”A challenge by any candidate, whomever he or she maybe, in any future election, whenever it may be, should be the normal expectation of any sitting representative and the recently proposed boundary changes should not affect this expectation.”

Sen. Dunkley has so far refused to confirm he’s running in Smith’s North again, but residents say he’s continued to work hard in the area.

Minister without Portfolio Zane DeSilva, who squeezed out long-serving UBP MP David Dodwell last time, was undeterred by the news of PLP voters switching from his Southampton East Central into the neighbouring seat held by Charlie Swan of the UBP.

”I am aware of the boundary changes,” said Mr. DeSilva. “However, regardless of any implications, I remain committed to my constituency, my constituents regardless of political persuasion and of course the party I represent.”

Another PLP newcomer at the last election, Lovitta Foggo, loses about 200 voters from St. David’s the constituency whose booming population forced the boundaries changes in the first place.

These are thought to be a mixture of PLP and UBP voters, with Ms Foggo saying:

”I have been canvassing since the day I was voted in.”I have made it clear that I’m there to represent them all. I will continue to work on their behalf to ensure that the constituency’s needs are met and I’m also the face of the PLP in Constituency Four, particularly with respect to St. David’s. The boundary change has no impact on the way in which I will continue to work my constituency.”

Mr. Moniz noted BDA Leader Craig Cannonier’s St. David’s connections and described the seat as “an interesting one”. Speculation continues to grow that former UBP MP, Sen. Suzann Roberts-Holshouser, will be challenging next door in St. George’s South, leaving the third St. David’s candidate a mystery.

BDA MP Donte Hunt faces a tough task hanging on to the St. George’s South seat he won by the skin of his teeth for the UBP last time.

Mr. Moniz believes the seat becomes more favourable to the UBP because of the voters it gains from St. David’s, while another observer argued in fact it’s mainly PLP voters making that switch.

Most pundits agreed that former UBP MP Darius Tucker would fail miserably if he completed his journey across the floor and tried to turn Hamilton South green and white, with that constituency remaining largely UBP despite losing Knapton Hill to Smith’s South.

”Who would vote for him?” was Mr. Moniz’s rhetorical verdict on his former colleague.

It’s thought that area could be just about open enough for a BDA push, however.

Probably no PLP MP need worry about boundary changes less than the broadly popular Dale Butler, who says his political views often go down better with UBP supporters than those of his own party.

Mr. Moniz wryly suggested he’d noticed Mr. Butler talking more favourably about white people recently, but the latter angrily argued he was known for speaking that way long before discovering Warwick North East will gain extra white voters.

”Nonsense. I made a lot of comments before the report came out. Why don’t you challenge such stupidity?” asked Mr. Butler. I feel totally insulted because I have worked hard to represent all constituents since 1998 and will continue to do so. So there is no weight to that argument.

”The report indicates I have lost a lot of traditional support and moved to an unknown area which will receive good representation from me regardless of race creed or colour. That is my record.”

A PLP colleague, however, raised concern that people could vote for the UBP regardless of Mr. Butler’s popularity.

Of the constituencies facing minor changes, Mr. Moniz said the PLP could live to regret any move to kick old soldiers Wayne Perinchief and Neletha Butterfield out of their Pembroke seats and replace them with Young Turks.

He said Pembroke Central and Pembroke West Central are vulnerable to swings toward the UBP, but Mr. Perinchief and Ms Butterfield can both count on support because of their high profiles.

One pundit suggested BDA MP Mark Pettingill could profit from Warwick West gaining Camp Lane making it less of a UBP stronghold but Mr. Moniz dismissed the lawyer as a latte-liberal who would have no chance in the still mainly conservative area.

Mr. Moniz added that of the two potential UBP candidates to challenge Mr. Pettingill, party chairman Jeff Sousa is a salesman who uses the word “I” a lot while Senator Jeanne Atherden is more of a team player who would be less reluctant to go elsewhere.

Traditional marginals in St. George’s remain unchanged, while seats in the west are probably solid enough PLP for the boundary changes to make no real difference.