Investors seek bailout winners
TORONTO (Reuters) - With the Canadian government having already leaked deficit figures ahead of tomorrow's budget, investors are now focused on the specific measures that could boost sectors as diverse as construction and banking.
They will also be seeking confirmation that a country that until recently prided itself on fiscal prudence now sees the pressing need to borrow heavily in order to boost growth.
"Big and bold is best," said Ian Nakamoto, director of research at MacDougall, MacDougall & MacTier. "It cannot be timid in this environment. You've got to throw everything you've got at it."
The Conservative government unveils its budget on January 27, an event that would typically present a bonanza of short-term trading opportunities for currency and bond traders.
But the ruling party stole much of its own thunder when a senior government official said on Thursday that Canada will post C$64 billion ($52 billion) in deficits over the next two fiscal years before returning to surplus in five years.
This would include enough stimulus spending to push the deficit to C$34 billion in the next fiscal year.
"A lot of the fireworks have already come and gone," said Eric Lascelles, the chief economics and rates strategist with TD Securities.
"If the market is going to move on it, it's going to come down to either the outlook beyond that or specifics on where the spending actually goes."
Analysts have speculated that the specific measures could range from regulatory changes that would let Ottawa inject equity into banks, to infrastructure spending that would boost construction and engineering firms like Montreal-based SNC-Lavalin Group Inc.
As global headlines about collapsing banks, a troubled auto industry, job losses, and sour economic data pile up, investors are ready to forgo the Canadian government's record of more than a decade of budget surpluses.