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'The tough times are when leadership is really tested'

Finance Minister Paula Cox

Planning for all eventualities is one of the most important principles of leadership during the current financial crisis and future events, according to business chiefs across Bermuda.

Finance Minister Paula Cox said being prepared for any circumstance and making measured, considered and informed responses was key to being a good leader in these tough economic times.

Meanwhile Don Kramer, CEO of Ariel Re, said good leadership in adversity was all about weighing up the whole situation and finding opportunities in the market.

"We have all been going through this financial crisis and I guess that this is when leadership is really tested," he said.

Mr. Kramer said the re/insurance industry was unique compared to rest of the sectors with the challenge of capital markets turning bad at the same time as big catastrophe losses in the wake of Hurricanes Gustav and Ike.

He said that while capital had dried up in 2008, with companies such as American International Group and XL Capital suffering, numerous new opportunities had arisen as a result.

"Insurance is one of the few industries that is suddenly having a positive outlook going forward where every other industry is being challenged," he said. "It is about who will be opportunistic and who will be defensive.

"I think good leaders are those who understand the difference between tactics and strategy in terms of assessing and understanding the environment and finding opportunities."

Ms Cox said one of the main qualities of leadership was early identification and assessment of changing circumstances and consideration of the most suitable policy response.

"The quality of the advice provided by the Ministry's policy and technical teams is first class as they continue to raise the bar," she said. "This on-going work allows me as the Minister of Finance to be able to quickly and soberly assess policy choices as circumstances change."

She cited her report to the House of Assembly in July which revised its GDP growth projection for 2008 to between two and 2.5 percent having taken into account the impact of the sub-prime crisis as an example of how to apply this principle.

In August, the Ministry of Finance gave the Cabinet its view of the changing outlook and the fiscal measures that would be needed to address it, resulting in a special Cabinet session being called the next month where the Ministry presented a detailed economic brief and ministers debated the priorities for the National Budget 2009/10.

"Internally, the Ministry of Finance has stepped up its monitoring of global economic conditions and its interaction with leading stakeholders in the private sector to obtain views from business leaders about industry sector performance and their outlook," said Ms Cox.

"This helps in fine-tuning contingency plans that may be implemented in the event of a severe downturn in Bermuda's economy."

But she said it did not rule out taking a tough stance if required, for example, by freezing salary and wage levels to keep jobs in the public sector, if necessary, following a sharp fall in tax revenue.

Ms Cox said, above all, it was important to take decisive action to achieve the best outcome for the majority of people in difficult circumstances.

"We have seen already in some other jurisdictions caught out by the current global economic and financial crisis that public sector jobs are being shed," she said.

"At this time in Bermuda, our situation is relatively stable, but there must be a policy response available if the economy falters.

"There is a plan for all probable economic scenarios including the worst economic circumstance that would involve a prolonged recession. That scenario has a policy package of emergency temporary measures that would allow Government to maintain essential public services and continue to service public debt."

Among the other steps being taken by Government were the monitoring of cash flow and spending, with the Ministry of Finance setting aside funding for key capital projects to boost the economy, said Ms Cox.

"Above all however, as Minister of Finance, I have a duty to remain calm and positive about Bermuda's capacity to weather the storms on the economic horizon," she said. "I am confident that Bermuda's people will emerge from this period of travail both wiser and stronger.

"When you consider the long view, Bermuda has been in business for 500 years. The legacy from those who went before us is a strong and vibrant one. Therefore, in our positive collective efforts, we will survive the current crisis. Our people and many of our businesses are resilient and strong in character. That is part of our enviable pedigree.

"In that regard, we must continue with our activities of daily life, namely: getting up in the morning and getting our children to school, getting ourselves to work, cleaning our homes, caring for our seniors, paying our bills and enjoying each other as people.

"This is not the same as painting a rosy picture. The times are challenging, and may become more difficult, but we must keep the resolve that has kept us 'in business' for 500 years."

She said some comfort could be taken in the fact that Bermuda is a top international business jurisdiction, while credibility, resilience, endurance and market responsiveness were some of the main attributes that makes the Island an attractive place for companies to set up base in.

"In a nutshell, the leadership from the Ministry of Finance in our present circumstances is 'tenderness in tough times'," she said.

"We have planned for all eventualities. Our policy responses will be measured, considered, informed and ultimately guided by 'keeping the people in the picture'."