What is Bermuda's official unemployment rate now?

It's an important question that nobody can really answer until fresh figures arrive later this autumn.

A spokesman for Government's Statistics Department said the last official measure of unemployment was 2.1 percent, based on the results of the 2004 Household Expenditure Survey.

The results of this year's inaugural Labour Force Survey, which will show the unemployment rate, will not be available for the next few weeks.

Despite some alarming headlines about job losses there has not been a massive increase in those registering with the Department of Labour and Training as unemployed.

Comparative figures show that from January 2008 to September 2008 the department had 355 people registered as unemployed. This year for the same period the figure is 370.

Acting Director of Labour and Training Acting Wayne Smith said: "It's a four percent increase, which is not as large a figure as expected, especially with the current downturn in the economy."

However the figure does not constitute Bermuda's unemployment rate just those registered with the department.

Unemployment rates are tricky to gauge the world over.

Often long-term jobless in other countries are removed from the figures by crafty politicians keen to keep the numbers down.

There are also cheats who claim to be unemployed to get state benefits but who are secretly working.

Economist Bob Stewart said Bermuda's current official levels, as dated as they are, merely indicated the numbers of people in the middle of changing jobs, and those who were unemployable.

"Unemployment is still pretty low here, you still have a hard time getting people to do ordinary jobs like gardening and painting, although it's easier than it was a couple of years ago.

"I don't think there is anything approaching the unemployment levels you find in Europe or the United States."

But no one doubts that the unemployment rate is rising here.

Association for Bermuda International Companies spokesman Richard Winchell said 2008 was the only year in the last five when the number of work permit employees leaving, exceeded those joining the workforce.

And Mr. Stewart fears going into winter months things will get worse, with what was left of the tourism season dwindling away.

"Unemployment will definitely increase, I would be very surprised if it didn't," he said.

"I guess it's at two to three percent now, nothing terribly serious, it will get serious when it gets to, let's say six percent.

"The tourism business is in a terrible condition. People pretend it's good, but it's awful."

Meanwhile the construction boom is tailing off.

"I am not sure there are sufficient projects to take care of people who have been working.

"When the winter comes and these projects end there will be quite a number of people unemployed.

"That's one of the scary things, the construction industry has been in boom time for as long as anyone can remember but the good times are beginning to shut down."

How bad it gets will depend on how the construction and hotel industry can respond in difficult circumstances.

"I personally think there will be a lot of bad news coming down the pike. I think the next few months will be quite difficult."

With such a large expat workforce Bermuda might seem to be fairly well insulated from the worst of unemployment. But it's not that simple, said Mr. Stewart.

"It is a problem. It is not so easy to say one-third of the working population is from overseas so we will chuck them out and the guys who are unemployed can take over.

"I have never seen any evidence that the guys working in construction can overnight become accountants, actuaries or lawyers it just doesn't happen. There's a mismatch.

"The great fallacy of non-economic thinkers is they think labour is one and the same thing. It is not. It's divided into all sorts of categories which are really immobile."

While some people can successfully swap careers, it can take five or six years to make the transformation.

But Mr. Stewart admits there are plenty of sceptics who think otherwise.

"I have lost count of the times people have said to me 'I can do your job, all you have to do is look out the window and sit in an office'. People go by appearances."

He said the new situation had come as a shock to those who falsely assumed Bermuda's economic growth was inevitable.

But each downturn has an upside for some. Prices in the shops are falling as businesses get more desperate to offload merchandise a boon for consumers who do have money in their pocket.

"If it was boom time we probably wouldn't see that many sales," said Mr. Stewart.

He said unemployment could boost productivity.

"When people see their mate has lost their job somewhere they tend to turn up on time and stop sloping off in the middle of the day. There is a disciplinary factor involved there."