the voters.

Pundits are predicting a close outcome.

The last three weeks saw a flurry of forums, rallies, news conferences, advertisements, and leaflets.

And there was plenty of canvassing. When the campaign officially began on September 16, strategists for both major parties said the fight would be won or lost on the doorsteps.

Yesterday, Premier the Hon. Sir John Swan rallied with his candidates and delivered a speech that underscored what the United Bermuda Party has said throughout the campaign. The UBP was the party with the experience and competence to manage Bermuda through changing times.

At a news conference, Progressive Labour Party Leader Mr. Frederick Wade expressed satisfaction with a campaign that stressed it was time for a change of Government. He attacked the UBP for what he called negative, American-style campaigning.

About 65 percent of Bermudians are hardcore supporters of either the UBP or the PLP. To change those votes would require the kind of rare campaign disaster that was not seen in the run-up to today's vote.

The undecided or "floating'' vote, said to be as high as 30 percent nine months ago, had dropped to between 15 and 20 percent last week, sources in the UBP estimated.

Those still undecided today will be among the 20 to 25 percent of eligible voters who are likely to stay home.

So does the campaign make a difference? Probably only in marginal constituencies like St. George's North, Hamilton East, Hamilton West, Pembroke West Central, Warwick East, and Warwick West.

Dr. Grant Gibbons, UBP campaign chairman, said his party had done "a pretty good job'' of getting its message across. "The UBP team and (the Hon.) Sir John Swan really are the best choice, and the only choice, for managing the changes Bermuda needs in the coming years,'' he said.

Mr. Alex Scott, campaign co-chairman for the PLP, said the UBP might have had "a slight edge'' in the first part of the campaign, but "we more than established our turf in the second half.'' The UBP campaign covered all the bases, emphasising sustained canvassing and a huge advertising campaign launched three weeks before the writs were issued.

Nobody was ever "gagged'', but UBP forums were orchestrated affairs at which candidates read from prepared speeches that repeated or expanded on promises made in the UBP platform, "Blueprint for Bermuda's Future.'' Two news conferences were held nearly every day, usually featuring at least one Minister and one or two newer candidates.

The UBP resisted PLP overtures to mix it up in debates or other free-for-alls.

The party did not want to be distracted from an election campaign fought on the doorsteps, a UBP source said. And the campaign was "well-managed, which is what you would expect from the UBP''.

The major flaw in the UBP campaign was the handling of the St. George's cruise ship issue. The mixed signals reflected what can happen when a Government agenda and political instincts meet. In the end, Sir John personally guaranteed the dedicated cruise ship while saying Government needed to wait until after the vote to decide which one. By then, some damage was done.

The PLP campaign, run on a much smaller budget, favoured five-minute television commercials over the punchier, more conventional spots used by the UBP.

The party held a daily news conference, also featuring Shadow Ministers and newer candidates.

The rallies were better attended and more spontaneous, but there were glitches. Before the campaign even began, Pembroke West Central candidate Mr.

Philip Perinchief had PLP officials steaming over his favourable comments about income tax. During the second week of the campaign, Mr. Julian Hall erroneously told a public meeting that the PLP had been endorsed by the Portuguese Bermudian Organisation, and Mr. Eugene Blakeney created an uproar when he said a PLP Government would dismiss civil servants deemed disloyal.

Mr. Wade's "gag order'' to candidates on matters regarding PLP policy did nothing to help the campaign's appearance.

But production of the PLP platform "A Plan for the '90s'' with one week left in the campaign was seen as a high point. The document was non-controversial and slick in appearance, but brought renewed UBP charges of a PLP "hidden agenda''.

Each side accused the other of negative campaigning, but the fight was a relatively clean one.

The UBP has disavowed connection with newspaper advertisements attacking Hamilton West PLP incumbents Mr. Julian Hall and Mr. Eugene Blakeney for a lack of constituency work. Similarly, the PLP has said it was not behind leaflets distributed in Hamilton attacking the UBP or campaign posters distribuetd in Warwick West.

One of the strongest personal attacks in the campaign came from PLP St.

George's North candidate Mr Leon (Jimmy) Williams, directed at his UBP opponent Mr. E. Michael Jones.

The US Bases issue, which figured prominently early in the campaign, may have ended in a draw. Sir John said it was never a political issue to begin with.

The PLP sought to neutralise what it saw as the Premier's advantage on the issue by attempting its own diplomatic initiative. That brought criticism for meddling and disputes over which party deserved credit for the Base reprieve.

Sir John still holds the cards, and held a news conference as recently as Sunday to say that he was urged to return to Washington to discuss the issue immediately after the election.

OCTOBER 1993 ELECTION