We are witnessing a sensational World Cup, but one that has been short on shock results.

Then again, how do you define a genuine shock? In this day and age, the easiest way may be to look for the upsets on the betting coupons.

Another route is to check the predictions of the armchair pundits who test their forecasting skills with friends in their football-watching community, the usual small prize counting for less than the kudos of coming top of the table.

Wins for seasoned campaigners Holland and Chile over Spain offered backers about three times their stake, showing how strongly the holders were fancied to progress.

And it will come as no surprise to know that the longest odds were for Costa Rica — about 9-1 to beat Uruguay and the same to topple Italy reflected the team’s status at the bottom of the tournament betting with Iran and Honduras.

A study of those armchair pundits reveals that very few of them saw the upsets coming. Of more than 100 who took part in the pool that I followed, only two tipped the coupon busters of Costa Rica over Italy. Four fancied them against Uruguay, the same number that supported Chile against Spain. Five tipped the Dutch to beat the holders.

So a shock is a result that offers the longest odds and which is predicted by the fewest people. Costa Rica tick all the boxes, but what is really remarkable is the extent to which the markets changed as the team progressed.

Costa Rica started at 2,500-1 to win the competition and 50-1 to top their group. Only Australia, at 66-1 in a tough section, were considered to have a lesser chance of progressing. But by the time Costa Rica played England, they had tumbled from 13-2 to 3-1 to win the match, England had gone out from 2-5 to 10-11 and the draw was in from 7-2 to 5-2.

And before the match against Greece, Costa Rica’s odds to win the trophy had been slashed from that 2,500-1 to 25-1. What is more, they were slight favourites to beat the Greeks. That the match was decided on penalties shows how close Costa Rica came to completing the transformation from inflicting shocks to being on the wrong end of one!

Resuming the role of underdogs for Saturday’s quarter-final, Costa Rica can draw encouragement from the occasionally suspect Dutch defence and from the frequency of upsets in the last eight.

Four years ago, Ghana were denied victory over Uruguay by the hand of Luis Suárez and then the width of the crossbar. Two surprise contenders — Senegal and Turkey — had slugged it out at the quarter-final stage in 2002, and a personal favourite was Bulgaria’s fightback against Germany to reach the semi-final in 1994.

At 6-1 to advance, Costa Rica have been written off again. But could it be another shocking night in Salvador?

World Cup six-pack

Belo blues: Ironically England’s best — or perhaps least bad — result of this tournament came at the scene of arguably their biggest World Cup disaster. A draw against Costa Rica in Belo Horizonte was an improvement on the 1–0 defeat there by the United States in 1950.

Pasta joke: Italy’s embarrassment against Costa Rica cost them a place in the knockout stage at the second successive tournament, but their biggest blow came in 1966 with defeat by North Korea at Middlesbrough’s Ayresome Park ground.

Debut delight: West Germany arrived in Argentina in 1978 as holders and duly hammered Mexico 6–0, but they were then held to a goalless draw by Tunisia, who were making their World Cup debut.

Dodgy defence: Argentina, the holders, made it to the semi-finals, as they defended the trophy at Italia ’90, but they opened with a shock defeat by Cameroon, who topped the group en route to the quarter-finals.

French flops: France took an even heavier fall as defending champions in 2002, losing their first game to Senegal — playing in their one and only finals — and finishing bottom of their group with one point and no goals.

Hosts’ horror: Brazil blitzed Sweden 7–1 and stunned Spain 6–1 as hosts and favourites back in 1950. But a devastating 2–1 defeat surrendered the World Cup to Uruguay and will be a constant reminder to this year’s crop that there is no room for complacency.

n Phil Ascough, the author of Never Mind The Penalties — The Ultimate World Cup Quiz Book (foreword by Kevin Kilbane) and Never Mind The Tigers, both published by The History Press, was a senior reporter and sub-editor at The Royal Gazette from 1989 to 1992