STORMS like the destructive Hurricane Fabian are going to be twice as likely to brew up over the Atlantic over the next ten years, a leading US Government meteorologist said this week.

The prediction from Stanley Goldenberg, of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), will come as a chilling warning to Bermuda residents still cleaning up after the Fabian swept through three weeks ago.

"We're not talking about a minor little increase, but an overall doubling of major hurricane activity," hurricane expert Mr. Goldenberg said.

Like a growing number of scientists, Mr. Goldenberg believes that conditions favourable for brewing up giant storms locked into place about eight years ago - and will remain that way for at least a decade more.

Mr. Goldenberg has gone public with his theory in Time magazine following the formation of back-to-back major hurricanes in the Atlantic.

Fabian, which was category three when it ripped off roofs, uprooted hundreds of trees and killed four people in Bermuda, had reached category four at one stage.

And Isabel, which killed more than 30 people and caused widespread flooding and destruction in the US last week, reached category five - a rare maximum-intensity storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale - before it made landfall.

Mr. Goldenberg's conclusions are based on cycles of changing sea temperatures that correlate closely with cycles of high and low hurricane activity over the years.

Other factors include El Nino and La Nina, phenomena which cause swings in sea temperature along equatorial areas of the Pacific Ocean but which also have an impact on Atlantic weather.

During the 1980s and 1990s, El Nino was dominant, bringing higher temperatures to Pacific waters and coinciding with a below-average occurrence of high-intensity Atlantic hurricanes.

It is well known that warm water is the main fuel of hurricanes, but sea temperature also has an impact on wind patterns.

El Nino promotes high-level westerly winds which "blow the tops" off storm systems in the Atlantic, an effect known as wind shear that can prevent a hurricane reaching maximum strength.

La Nina, which brings cooler water temperatures to the tropical Pacific, reduces those winds and creates better atmospheric conditions for Atlantic hurricanes to reach their full potential.

The NOAA sent aircraft carrying a range of scientific equipment into both Fabian and Isabel and retrieved masses of data.

It was the lack of wind shear that allowed Isabel to form a nearly flawless cone of clouds some 60,000 feet high with a pronounced eye around 100 miles in diameter. The aircraft measured wind speeds of 230 miles per hour in the eye wall.

But Mr. Goldberg believes there could be yet more complex factors involved with the meteorological mystery behind the variability of hurricane formation in the Atlantic.

He has discovered that a slight variation in Atlantic sea temperatures in cycles of several decades coincides with periods of high and low hurricane activity.

Even though the oscillation in Atlantic sea temperatures is not large - less than 2F - that is still enough to add to the fuel that drives hurricanes, and equally significantly to reduce the wind shear that is capable of disrupting hurricane formation.

Atlantic surface temperatures were on the rise between the 1920s and 1970 when hurricane activity was high. And as surface temperatures dropped in the ocean in the '70s, '80s and early '90s, so did hurricane activity.

Not all scientists agree with Mr. Goldenberg's theory, however.

For example, Kerry Emanuel, a hurricane expert at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, told Time: "We don't really have the foggiest idea why hurricane formation in the Atlantic was inactive in the '70s, '80s and '90s and so active in the '40s, '50s and early '60s.

"So if somebody says there'll be more hurricanes than normal over the next ten years and someone else says there'll be fewer, each has a 50 per cent chance of being right."

The Bermuda Biological Station for Research (BBSR) announced this week that it is to host a meeting of scientists and insurers next Friday to discuss the latest hurricane research.

This workshop is sponsored and organised by the Risk Prediction Initiative (RPI), a science-business partnership based at the bio station. RPI's goal is to help businesses worldwide better understand, assess and manage climate-related risks.

Dr. Richard Murnane, science programme manager of RPI, said: "While Fabian's visit will make 2003 a notable year for Bermuda, and Isabel sustained category five winds for a particularly long time, statistics suggest that this year's hurricane season might not be that unusual for the Atlantic basin."

The scientists participating in the October workshop come from all over the world and receive financial support for their research from RPI's sponsors.