Insured losses from Hurricane Gustav are expected to be revised downwards today, with catastrophe modelling firm Risk Management Solutions set to release updated estimates.

RMS catastrophe response manager Neena Saith said yesterday that while it was too early to state what the new estimates would be, they were expected to fall to the lower end of the range put forward earlier this week.

On Monday RMS was predicting that the storm would cause $3 billion to $7 billion in losses on land, while competitor AIR Worldwide Corp. issued predictions of $2 billion to $4.5 billion.

Ms Saith said RMS' ground reconnaissance teams were finding lower levels of damage in the areas they had visited to survey the aftermath of the storm — which petered out earlier this week after sparing New Orleans a direct hit.

The storm, which was blamed for 112 deaths in the Caribbean with Haiti and Cuba badly hit, also closed oil platforms in the Gulf of Mexico.

Yesterday 25 percent of US crude oil production and 11 percent of US refining was still shut in the storm's wake. Production shutdowns in the Gulf of Mexico have already cut 7.4 million barrels of cumulative output, about a third of the amount of oil the US consumes in a day.

And, with three named storms at play in the Atlantic yesterday, catastrophe modelling firms were working overtime this week. Both Tropical Storm Hanna and Hurricane Ike are of concern to insurers.

Yesterday Hanna was scrubbing the Bahamas and predicted to head for the US Carolinas by Saturday, with weather forecasters noting the storm — yesterday packing winds of 70 mph — could strengthen once it hits the warmer ocean at the Gulf Stream.

"There is a lot of uncertainty associated with Hanna's intensity," said Ms Saith. While some models predict the storm will reach hurricane strength before making landfall, others suggest there is a chance the winds will not pick up to the 75 mph mark which starts the five-category Saffir-Simpson scale.

Ms Saith said, however, that Hanna may re-curve and track parallel to the US East Coast as a weakened tropical storm in which case, "winds may not be the primary hazard but those states could receive a real good soaking".

Regardless, Ms Saith said Hanna is not expected to generate major losses. Worst case indications are that it will make landfall as a weak category one hurricane, she said. "In terms of loss that it could cause, it should be minimal as it is unlikely to be a wind event."

Competing risk modelling firm AIR Worldwide seemed to concur. "Hanna is expected to make landfall somewhere on the coast of South or North Carolina either late Friday or early Saturday," noted Dr. Peter Dailey, director of atmospheric science at AIR. "Once over land, Hanna should begin to weaken. The centre of the system is then forecast to skirt a high pressure ridge building over the western Atlantic, steering it up and along the US East Coast to New England, probably as a tropical storm."

Of greater concern is the highly unpredictable category four hurricane Ike, which was 525 miles off the Leeward Islands last night.

Ike is the third major hurricane of the 2008 season behind Bertha and Gustav. Yesterday, the hurricane was clocking sustained winds of 140 mph and was branded "extremely dangerous" by the US National Hurricane Center. Ms Saith said Ike could cause major damages in the Bahamas, where it is a threat to expensive hotels and other tourist infrastructure. Ike is expected to reach the Bahamas by Saturday or Sunday as a major hurricane, category three or above.

However, similar to Hanna, Ms Saith said there is a lot of uncertainty about Ike's predicted intensity. She said Ike could end up losing strength as it may follow a very similar track to Hanna. In which case, rather than building intensity over the warmer waters of the Gulf Stream, Ike would encounter disturbed ocean with waters cooled by Hanna and weaken.

AIR's Dr. Dailey added, however: "Fluctuations in Ike's intensity are forecast for the short term, since eyewall replacements are typical in storms as strong as Ike. After that, Ike will be entering a region of high vertical wind shear, which should induce some weakening. Once through, however, reintensification is possible."

The company said the big uncertainty comes with respect to Ike's forecast track. The current, generally westward motion is forecast to shift to the northwest. How soon that happens is the big question. "The GFS and UKMet models suggest that Ike will turn sooner, sparing the Bahamas and possibly the US," AIR noted in a release. "The other models—including the NHC's forecast track—indicate that the turn is likely to occur later. If that is the case, Hurricane Ike may reach the Bahamas some time on Sunday."

The storm must be followed closely, however, as it is too early for hard predictions. "It certainly has the potential to do a lot of damage," Ms Saith said. "It is too early to say it will definitely hit the US but it is a high risk to affect Florida."

And behind Ike, forecasters are also watching Tropical Storm Josephine but Ms Saith noted Josephine is not expected to approach any land areas in the next five days.