This time of year always sees people compiling their wish lists for the Government Budget, which will be read in Parliament today.

This is something of an exercise in futility since decisions about what taxes will be raised or cut and how the money is going to be spent are set sometime in late December.

This year may be a little different because the world economic outlook has been changing so fast, and thus Bermuda's outlook has too. Nonetheless, this editorial will not recommend what Finance Minister Paula Cox should be saying today, since she will have already made her mind up some time ago.

Instead, here are some critical economic and political questions to watch out for:

¦ Did Government meet its revenue and spending targets from the 2007-8 Budget? For the last few years, Government has underestimated its tax revenues as the economy has grown faster than expected. That has helped Government to record a current account surplus even as spending has exceeded expectations, and has helped to reduce projected borrowing as more money has been available for capital spending. This past year may be different as tourism revenues have missed their targets, imports, and therefore Customs duty revenues, have shrunk, and employment has most likely slipped, which could affect payroll tax revenues. So it may be that the projected $24.3 billion current account surplus will be smaller than expected.

¦ Will Ministries meet their 10.5 percent expenditure cuts without shedding jobs? Ms Cox set these targets late last year as the economic picture deteriorated. But cutting spending this much when personnel costs make up more than 40 percent of Government expenditure is going to be tough.

n Will Government be able to balance its current account? It has been an article of faith that Bermuda balances its current account (day to day expenses), even as it borrows for capital expenditure, in the same way that a household should not have to borrow to pay the rent or mortgage, groceries and so on, but may borrow to buy a new car or house. If Government revenues fall and expenses are not curtailed, this article of faith may be broken.

¦ Will Future Care be introduced this year? The big idea in the Progressive Labour Party's 2007 election campaign is supposed to provide affordable health care to senior citizens. It's admirable, but likely to be fiercesomely expensive.

¦ Will taxes go up? One way to balance the books is to raise taxes or the myriad fees that Government charges the public. The risk in a weakening economy is that higher taxes take cash out of the pockets of people who might otherwise spend or invest it, thus making a bad situation worse. It can be argued that the tax increases levied by then Finance Minister David Saul in the early 1990s may have deepened that recession, even as they kept Government's books balanced.

¦ Will Government stimulate the economy with capital projects, and if so, how will they be paid for? With construction tapering off, the economy may slow down dramatically later this year. Government can inject money into the economy and keep people employed with, to borrow a phrase, "shovel ready" stimulus projects which can be financed through borrowing. Government raised the statutory borrowing ceiling last year to $550 million, and the general rule is that public borrowing should not exceed ten percent of gross domestic product, or $600 million of the estimated $6 billion GDP. Net Government borrowing was estimated at $387 million last year, so there is some wiggle room, but this is a figure worth watching, especially if GDP shrinks.

Mea culpa department: Cabinet Secretary Marc Telemaque has rightly pointed out that yesterday's editorial contained several errors. American Express has not been granted the full contract for Government travel, but is doing a pilot project for some Government travel for 12 months. At the end of that time, a decision will be made on whether to continue with its services, expand them or dispense with them entirely. In the meantime, local travel agencies still handle some Government travel and may have an opportunity to bid on the contract at the end of the pilot period.

Finally, Mr. Telemaque's first name is spelled Marc, not Mark as was stated in the editorial.