-- is back in the black.

After suffering deficits of $33 million, $52 million and $24 million between 1988 and 1990, the indicator -- which measures the balance between imports and exports -- registered a surplus of $8 million and $11 million in 1991 and 1992.

After the first six months of this year, the Island has a deficit of around $2 million, because a $43 million deficit in the first quarter was not offset by an almost $41 million surplus in the second. Economists will now be hoping a likely large surplus in the third quarter (June to September) will be enough to overcome the October to December deficit and give the Island a small surplus for the year.

The deficits between 1988 and 1990 were caused by a slowdown in spending by international businesses and the tourism industry and increases in local spending -- exacerbated by the heavy injection of cash as a result of Hurricane Emily.

In 1991 and 1992, with the Island in the teeth of the recession and the funds from Emily gone, the balance recorded an $8 million surplus, but this was more due to a reduction in imports than a growth in exports as spending by visitors and international companies remained weak.

In 1993, the economy began to return to normal and the heavy deficit in the first quarter was probably caused by importers restocking inventories more heavily than normal in anticipation of a better year.

The second quarter surplus occurred because arrivals improved by ten percent and spending went up.