One of the world's leading experts on the oil markets may be able to shed some light for a Bermuda audience this week on why the price of crude is approaching $100 a barrel.

Matthew Simmons, an advisor to the George W. Bush administration and chairman of specialised energy investment bank Simmons & Company International, is the guest speaker at the Bermuda Institute of Ocean Sciences (BIOS) Distinguished Lecture Series event on Friday.

Regarded as a leading world expert on the oil industry, Mr. Simmons' lecture is entitled "Riding Out the Hurricane: How to Prepare for Peak Oil".

Mr. Simmons has predicted in a New York Times Magazine cover story that the price of oil will be at least $200 (in 2005 dollars) a barrel by 2010.

His examination of oil reserve decline rates has raised awareness of the unreliability of Middle East oil reserves. Mr. Simmons has also contradicted the belief that we can continue to increase our yearly consumption of oil, rather than conserve what is left and begin the transition to alternative energy sources.

Mr. Simmons' book "Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy" has been listed on the Wall Street Journal's best-seller list. The controversial book addresses the lack of transparency regarding data on the world's remaining oil reserves.

And according to Mr. Simmons' calculations, Saudi Arabia is about to face the exhaustion of its giant fields and, in the relatively near future, will probably experience a sharp decline in output.

Mr. Simmons has published numerous energy papers for industry journals and is a frequent speaker at US government forums, energy symposiums and in boardrooms of many leading energy companies.

The lecture will be held this Friday on the BIOS campus in Hanson Hall, Ferry Reach, St. George's. The lecture will begin at 6.30 p.m. and a question-and-answer session with Mr. Simmons will follow.

Admission costs $20 for members and $30 for non-members. To reserve a place, e-mail vanessa.shorto[AT]bios.edu or call 297-1880, extension 204.