Former United Bermuda Party MP Jamahl Simmons believes the Opposition's continuing failure stems not from just from race but policy and personnel as he predicted a new party would struggle to make its mark.

Speaking as the UBP contemplates disbanding under pressure from a break away faction of MPs eager to form a new Opposition, he said: "Whether the UBP splinters and a new group emerges, or gives the party a rebranding facelift is irrelevant as the key players simply don't understand why they keep losing.

"Their recent defeats stem not merely from race, as they would like to believe, but from a simple inability to grasp the issues that are important to the masses of Bermudians, present candidates that have the ability and credibility to articulate and deliver on these issues and a 30-year legacy of the old UBP that they have neither apologised for nor repudiated."

Mr. Simmons, who left the party to sit as an Independent last year before finishing his parliamentary career on the PLP benches, said: "It took decades for the swing voters of Bermuda – who come almost 100 percent from the black community – to lose faith in the UBP and gain confidence in the PLP."

He said trust that is lost over a long period can only be regained over a long period if there is sustained and consistent change that represents the interests and aspirations of the masses.

Mr. Simmons, whose father Lionel was one of the breakaway PLP MPs who sat for a term for the now defunct National Liberal Party, said: "The split that is being proposed faces several challenges.

"First, are there seven dissident UBP MPs capable of holding their seats or winning new ones, if the UBP decides to soldier on?

"Second, what philosophical differences, vision and ideas can any UBP dissidents present that is different enough from the existing UBP to draw support from the black community?

"If the UBP dissidents are able to present a significantly different vision, philosophy and ideas than the UBP, do they have the credibility and the ability to articulate and deliver on it?"

He said if seven UBP MPs decide to soldier on they will more than likely come from safe UBP seats.

With seven UBP safe seats and at least 16 PLP safe seats left under this scenario the new entity would have to win six existing marginals and hold on to the seven old UBP seats to win, said Mr. Simmons – an even more unlikely scenario for victory than the existing model.

"Can a third entity emerging from the UBP compete effectively for candidates, campaign funds and grassroots manpower against the two larger parties?

"Despite the repeated claims by the UBP that black voters, make their electoral decisions based on race, 90 percent of white voters support the UBP.

"This is unlikely to change and any split within the UBP would create either a split within the white vote or in the event of the disbanding of the UBP, a wholesale shift of white voters towards the new entity."

He said if the new entity is radically different from the old UBP and is unable to generate enthusiasm within the white community because they are, "out PLPing the PLP," then white voter apathy was likely to increase.

"The future of the UBP in its existing form or another is dependent on them listening and understanding the interests, values and aspirations of the masses of Bermudians.

"They have to identify and run attractive, credible candidates who share the interests, values and aspirations of the masses of Bermudians and are capable of articulating them.

"Finally, they have to address the issues of institutional racism and white supremacy with courage, integrity and consistency.

"Failure to do this will only lead to further humiliation at the polls."