The Progressive Labour Party has a huge lead according to the first independent poll released during this election campaign.

It shows 45.3 percent of those polled now support the Government compared to 31.8 percent backing the Opposition with 12.1 percent still undecided and 1.7 percent not voting.

The poll by Profiles of Bermuda of 406 people, done between November 23 and December 1, has a margin of error of 4.9 percent — the same as previous polls put out by the parties in recent weeks.

It shows the PLP have a commanding lead among blacks, young people and the poor and middle income groups while men are slightly more likely to support the party than women.

Race seems to be the biggest determining factor among voters with 70.2 percent of blacks backing the governing party compared to just 7.2 percent supporting the United Bermuda Party and 12.5 percent undecided.

Meanwhile 76.6 percent of whites back the UBP with just 0.9 percent backing the PLP and 11.2 percent undecided.

The PLP gets the backing of 61.2 percent of the 18-35s compared with 14 percent supporting the UBP. In the 36-54 age group that lead has narrowed to 43.9 percent backing the PLP compared to 30.5 percent backing the UBP.

And in the over 55 category the Government's lead narrows still further to 42.1 percent compared to 36.8 percent backing the Opposition.

There are also slight gender differences with 49.7 percent of men backing the PLP compared to 33.2 percent backing the UBP while the Government's lead among women falls to 43.3 percent compared to 31.3 percent backing the Opposition.

Twice as many women have yet to make up their mind with 14.7 percent in the undecided camp compared to seven percent of men still weighing up which way they will vote.

The PLP has a substantial lead among the those with a household income of less than $100,000.

In the under $50,000 category 47.1 percent back the ruling party compared to 25.9 percent backing the Opposition, 15.9 percent undecided and 5.3 percent not intending to vote.

In the $50-100,000 category 50.9 percent of voters are pro-PLP compared with 29.3 percent pro-UBP while 12 percent have yet to make up their mind.

The UBP edges ahead in the $100,000-plus households with 42.1 percent of the vote compared to 39.5 percent backing the PLP while 9.6 percent have not made a choice.

The independent poll puts the PLP further ahead than a private poll conducted by the party at the end of October.

That Research Innovations survey poll showed the PLP with a virtually identical 45.5 percent of support but it showed the UBP with a higher share of support — at 37.7 percent — compared to the 31.8 percent in the new Profiles of Bermuda survey.

The only poll to put the UBP ahead in the election campaign was its own poll of 408 people done by Research.bm which put the UBP on 39 percent and the PLP on 37 percent with 17 percent undecided and six percent refusing to answer.

See more from the polls in The Royal Gazette tomorrow.