BEIRUT (Reuters) — The assassination of Lebanese cabinet minister Pierre Gemayel is a blow to the Western-backed government but also hurts the interests of its Hezbollah-led opponents tussling for control of Lebanon.The government has already been weakened by the resignation of pro-Syrian ministers and the killing could make it harder for Beirut to shepherd in an international tribunal to try suspects in a string of assassinations in Lebanon, analysts said.

But with many Lebanese already blaming Damascus for the latest killing, Hezbollah will probably have to put off anti-government protests it had planned, temporarily knocking the wind out of its sails. “For now the opposition will have to freeze their activity. There’s no way they could go into the streets. People will be provoked,” said Oussama Safa, head of the Lebanese Centre for Policy Studies.

Outrage at the killing could, in the short term, feed into renewed public support for the anti-Syrian camp, helping buttress the cabinet against Hezbollah whose stated aim is to topple what it calls a US government in Lebanon.

Hezbollah and its allies quit the cabinet on November 11 after the collapse of all-party talks on giving them a decisive say in government.

The anti-Syrian forces in cabinet accused them of pulling out to derail the international tribunal to defend their allies in Damascus, who they blame for assassinations dating back to the slaying of former Prime Minister Rafik al-Hariri last year.

The depleted cabinet passed the UN framework for the tribunal regardless. The Security Council gave its approval to the special court, meaning it must now come back to Beirut for the government’s final consent.

Gemayel’s assassination marks an escalation of the campaign to thwart the tribunal, some analysts said. “It’s part of the ongoing fight over the tribunal,” columnist Michael Young said.

“It’s obvious that the tribunal is the issue and that we’ve reached boiling point when it comes to the Hariri assassination. It’s a question of who’s tougher,” he said.

But already stripped of six ministers, Gemayel’s killing could make it harder for the Beirut government to survive, let alone see in the international tribunal which is one of its top priorities.

“Six ministers have resigned, one has been killed. If two more go the government automatically falls,” said Paul Salem, director of the Carnegie Middle East Centre.

John Bolton, US Ambassador at the UN, dismissed a reporter’s question about whether Council approval of the tribunal plan might feed instability in Lebanon, as Russia and Qatar had suggested in a recent closed-door council meeting.

“How incredibly wrong that would be,” he said. “Instability? They are killing people in Lebanon, they are assassinating political leaders.”

But Salem foresaw possible pitfalls before any final Lebanese approval of a tribunal.

“If there is no government there is nobody to approve it. If there is a new government, it might have different political balances,” Salem added.

Leaders of the anti-Syrian majority, who have been talking of a Hezbollah plan to take control of the government, have also been warning of potential assassination attempts on leading politicians.

Hariri’s slaying in February last year was the first of a string of assassinations of anti-Syrian figures. Gemayel’s assassination could mark the start of a new wave of killings, Safa said.

“This is the start of the destabilising campaign. This is the government’s worst fear.”