WASHINGTON (Reuters) — New UN sanctions are unlikely to persuade North Korea to abandon its weapons program and their effectiveness at getting Pyonygang back to negotiations and curbing dangerous exports could be undermined by China and South Korea, analysts said on Sunday.The sanctions resolution, designed to lay a marker for Iran as well as North Korea, is in some ways a diplomatic success for the hard-nosed US and Japanese approach.

It was approved unanimously on Saturday, reflecting international outrage at Pyongyang’s reported first test last week of a nuclear device. But the resolution was softened to meet objections from Pyongyang’s main benefactor China, and Russia, and some provisions remain open to interpretation.

“It’s a diplomatic accomplishment for the Bush administration but the real impact won’t be known until we see how it’s enforced,” said Mitchell Reiss, a North Korea expert who is vice provost for international affairs at the College of William and Mary in Virginia.

“If the Chinese and, to a lesser extent, South Korea, enforce this resolution, then I do believe it will bring Pyongyang back to the negotiating table. It’s doubtful the North will give up nuclear weapons, but we don’t know for sure, and that’s the purpose of the six-party talks,” he added.

Gary Samore, a former top US non-proliferation official who is now vice president at the Council on Foreign Relations, noted Libya was persuaded to forgo nuclear weapons in part because of long-standing sanctions.

But “it is very unlikely that this resolution will force North Korea to abandon its nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programmes ... because it doesn’t really affect the essential elements — provided by China and South Korea — that the North needs to survive,” like oil, fertiliser and cement, he said.

The resolution allows nations to stop cargo going to and from North Korea to check for weapons of mass destruction or related supplies. It bars trade with North Korea in dangerous weapons, heavy conventional weapons and luxury goods and asks nations to freeze funds connected with its WMD programmes.

The resolution “isn’t going to solve the problem (of North Korea’s nuclear programs) which is why a number of countries — China among them — have pleaded to keep a diplomatic path open,” a senior US official told Reuters.

“The sanctions are also unlikely to depose the hideous Kim Jong Il regime. That will probably depend on internal factors rather than trying to further isolate the world’s mosted isolated regime,” he added.

Sanctions are an imperfect tool for influencing international behavior, but there is broad consensus in Washington that Pyongyang must face consequences for its nuclear test.

The options for managing Pyongyang’s nuclear ambitions have always been limited. Recent negotiations, boycotted by the North, have failed and no one wants war. Some Bush administration critics favor more assertive diplomacy, including sending an envoy to meet the North Koreans.

The resolution also sends a clear message to Iran — which the UN Security Council three months ago ordered to halt nuclear enrichment — “Keep enriching and you’re next” on the sanctions list, said Henry Sokolski of the Non-proliferation Education Policy Center.

Added Danielle Pletka of the American Enterprise Institute: “Like all such sanctions, the heaviest impact will be the chilling effect it has on business with North Korea. The North is already having a hard time finding money, and this is likely to make things much worse.”

Although China, viewed as essential to a solution, voted for the resolution, it refused to participate in international searches of cargo.

Beijing is still more worried about North Korea’s collapse than its nuclear capability, but “what China says and what China does sometimes aren’t the same,” said Reiss, suggesting Beijing might interdict cargo but just not talk about it.

While promising to “faithfully implement” the resolution. South Korea has said it will not pull the plug on its two main projects in the North, which supply steady cash to Pyongyang’s leaders. The U.S. Congress could exert an impact on the industrial park through negotiations with Seoul over a free trade agreement, congressional aides said.