Premier Alex Scott will be challenged by Deputy Premier Ewart Brown for the leadership at this month's PLP conference, former Cabinet Minister Ren?e Webb has predicted.

And Dr. Brown last night refused to rule out a bid to be Premier despite twice this year saying he would not run.

Party insiders see his likely change of heart as a make or break gamble as he again vies for the post denied him during the 2003 post-election coup which toppled Premier Jennifer Smith and ushered in Mr. Scott.

Ms Webb said Dr. Brown should resign from Cabinet and fight in the open to have any real credibility after noting previous last-minute bids have been soundly defeated.

She said: "I heard he's running. I think he should definitely do it openly."

She said a low-key campaign had not worked for Arthur Hodgson in 2000 who she said had "sat in the Cabinet and was nominated on the floor (of the delegates conference) that night and he lost."

Ms Webb added: "Dr. Brown and his group tried to fight Jennifer Smith and lost by a sneaky, behind-closed-doors bid.

"This is a democracy. People should be able to run if they choose to run ? at least do it openly."

Last night Dr. Brown refused to be drawn on the speculation.

He told : "There are people talking to me but I have no comment at the moment."

Dr. Brown declined to comment further when pressed on how he could run after previously stating he would remain loyal to Mr. Scott.

In July he had told this paper: "I have no intention of seeking the leadership at this year's conference and I hope that one day I will qualify."

But it's thought strong poll showings are a factor in finally forcing his hand.

Last week it was revealed 89 percent of people polled said Dr. Brown was "very effective", or "somewhat effective" in his role as Tourism and Transport Minister.

However The Research Innovations poll conducted between September 14 and 17, showed only 34 per cent approved of how Premier Alex Scott was doing his job while 40 per cent did not approve.

The figures also showed Finance Minister Paula Cox riding high with very similar figures to Dr. Brown.

Some senior PLP figures believe a Dr. Brown challenge could pave the way for a Paula Cox Premiership, just as his challenge to Premier Jennifer Smith just hours after the PLP's 2003 election victory served only to let in Alex Scott as a compromise candidate between warring factions.

Ms Webb, who resigned from the Alex Scott Cabinet in July 2004 over social and black empowerment issues, said that Ms Cox was a much more enticing prospect than either Mr. Scott or Dr. Brown.

She said: "I have a problem with both candidates. I won't go into the problems. There are a myriad of things. Both of them would have to convince me why I should vote for them."Up until recently I think I was convinced on which one I would vote for. Now I am not so sure. Sometimes it isn't what you do in life but how you do it.

"I hope Paula Cox does decide to run. She would definitely have my support, I wouldn't think twice. I think her integrity is above reproach. I think that's very important."

And she said although Dr. Brown might sway a majority of MPs he had a harder job convincing the wider party who hold the majority of votes when the crunch comes at the end of the month.

She said: "I don't know if he will be able to get through the delegates."

The contest is already turning nasty with a leaflet being circulated among delegates reminding them of Dr. Brown's speech after Jennifer Smith had been ousted where he said the eleven rebels who forced her out had "misled you because we had to."

The leaflet paraphrases that quote and has a large picture of Dr. Brown's head clumsily superimposed on the body of a snake with the pictures of the other ten rebels also given the reptilian treatment. Inside there is a folk tale about a snake which bites an Indian brave who helped him.

Community Affairs and Sports Minister Dale Butler said: "I condemn that leaflet. Given the free press and the talk shows there is ample opportunity to advertise. It's pitiful."

Asked about the leadership challenge Mr. Butler said: "I have no comment. I am totally confused. I thought he said he wasn't going to challenge. This is all news to me.

"Nobody has approached or lobbied me. Mind, I don't go to those cocktail sips. I am always the last to know.

"When it came to the Jennifer Smith thing I was tucked away in a private location and only one person knew where I was. I intended to wake up three days later.

"But the one person who knew where I was came and spoiled it."

Mr. Butler said if Dr. Brown did challenge it wouldn't necessarily be the end of his Cabinet career. "I don't think the Premier would kick him out. He's not that type of leader".

However one supporter, who confirmed Dr. Brown was certain to run, said the Deputy Premier was willing to risk his political career as he didn't want to be around if he was only going to remain number two.

"It's make or break. It's all or nothing," said the source.

Backbencher Nelson Bascome said he had been lobbied by a couple of MPs as well as ordinary members to encourage Dr. Brown to challenge.

"I will relay the information to him but I have not had the chance to talk to him."

He said the charismatic Dr. Brown had a record of success in the Tourism ministry and was in a stronger position than when he ran three years ago.

But he agreed Paula Cox would also make a great candidate.