Newly released preseason hurricane forecasts have delivered conflicting predictions for the number of storms expected to form in the Atlantic this year.

The University of Arizona warned about an active season featuring 20 named storms, including nine hurricanes, four of which were forecast to reach at least Category 3 strength.

While the prediction reported the possibility of a “very strong El Niño”, which could hinder storm development in the Atlantic, it noted that sea surface temperatures in the region were “among the highest in the model”.

The university compared the conditions to those that came before the 2023 hurricane season and concluded that the coming season could mirror that one.

However, Tropical Storm Risk forecast a slightly below average season with only 12 named storms, including five hurricanes and one major hurricane.

The meteorological organisation estimated that the season would have about 40 per cent less activity than average, citing sea surface temperatures and forecast trade winds in the region.

“The former is forecast to be slightly warmer than average and the latter is predicted to be stronger than normal due to a predicted moderate or strong El Niño through summer and autumn 2026,” TSR said.

“The forecast has lowered considerably from the extended range forecast issued in December, primarily due to much higher confidence in the development of at least a moderate El Niño through spring and into summer 2026.”

Last April, the University of Arizona forecast 15 named storms, including seven hurricanes, three of which would reach Category 3.

Meanwhile, TSR forecast 14 named storms with seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

By the end of the 2025 season, 13 named storms had been recorded including five hurricanes, four of which reached at least Category 3 strength.

Several other early forecasts for the 2026 hurricane season have been released, with Colorado State University predicting a milder than average season, while AccuWeather predicted a close to average season.

The 2026 hurricane season formally starts on June 1 and concludes on November 30 but hurricanes can form outside of that window.