Charity sees Iran conflict driving food price inflation
Iran is more than 6,000 miles from Bermuda, but its ongoing conflict has a local charity deeply concerned.
“For the organisation the conflict in Iran is a pressing concern,” said Will Campbell, vice-chairman of Bermuda Is Love, an organisation concerned with basic human rights to things such as food, housing and medical care.
“The worry is in the compounding effects of the war, and further disruption that we are likely to incur,” he said. “Bermuda is probably being impacted more than we realise.”
Mr Campbell works in the insurance industry, and has a bachelor’s in social sciences centred on war and conflict.
After the United States started bombing Iran in February, Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, halting supply of 20 per cent of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas, and 30 per cent of its fertilisers.
Mr Campbell is worried about the impact on global hunger and food prices in Bermuda.
“Bermuda happens to be 700 miles at sea,” he said. “As a result we are heavily dependent on imports for just about everything. The impacts of shipping and fuel costs bleed over and spill over and compound, especially for communities like Bermuda.”
Mr Campbell said the strait’s closure is causing an acute shock to interconnected systems for energy and food.
“That will bleed out across the rest of the global economy, because the global economy is dependent upon the price stability and supply of those key crucial commodities of food and energy,” he explained. “Those will have inflationary impacts on us that are still rippling through the system right now.”
He said this year’s El Niño weather phenomenon developing in the Pacific Ocean will also have an impact on world food stocks, as key growing areas are predicted to experience severe droughts this year.
“This will reduce crop yields,” he said. “On top of the pressure of reduced or more expensive fertiliser inputs we will see disruption in natural cycles across the globe.”
Because Bermuda imports so much of its food, it inherits global food price increases from other countries such as the United States.
According to Scripps News website, grocery prices rose 2.9 per cent in the United States in April, compared with a year earlier, the highest year-over-year increase since August 2023.
Mr Campbell said there is often a time lag in how inflationary pressures in other parts of the world impact Bermuda.
“If we are seeing now that inflation is spiking in the US, then we know that in a few weeks to a few months’ time, at the most, we will begin to feel the same,” he said.
Mr Campbell said Bermuda is Love is looking at alternatives to break away from fossil-fuel-based fertilisers.
“We are very supportive of regenerative agriculture, agroecology and biointensive solutions,” he said. “However, these are short-supply-chain focused. They are aimed at negating or mitigating the usage of outside chemical inputs.”
Even if the war ends tomorrow, he does not think we will return to where we were in February.
“It is certainly not an issue that is going to be resolved at any near point,” he said.
He said the crisis in the Middle East and also the Russia-Ukraine war were watershed moments that have permanently changed the global order.
“We need to engage that Bermudian spirit that we have developed, looking at what other places do well,” he said. “We need to make those ideas our own and build them into our frameworks. We should see how we can build on and improve them.”
He said there is much space for growth.
