Survey: public split on Caricom but want referendum
Bermuda remains on the fence about whether the island should become a full member of Caricom, survey findings suggest, but the results also point to strong support for a referendum.
The Royal Gazette commissioned Narrative Research Bermuda to conduct the telephone-based questionnaire with a sample of 400 Bermuda residents.
According to the findings, 42 per cent expressed support for full membership — 10 per cent “completely” and 32 per cent “somewhat”.
Those who “completely” opposed accounted for 24 per cent of respondents, while 21 per cent were “somewhat” opposed, taking the total in opposition to 45 per cent, with another 13 per cent unsure.
Feelings were stronger on whether a referendum was needed, with 81 per cent in favour, although that was two percentage points lower than those who supported it in a 2025 survey.
Almost half of those asked said the issue should “definitely” be decided by referendum, while just under a third responded with “probably”.
On the other side, 10 per cent said “probably not” and 3 per cent replied “definitely not”. The “don’t know” camp represented 6 per cent of those asked.
Narrative Research figures showed that last September, 53 per cent of survey respondents supported full membership of the Caribbean Community, compared with 32 per cent against.
However, support has grown considerably for full membership since 2024 when the company conducted its first survey on the issue.
Then, only 26 per cent of those asked supported full membership and 40 per cent opposed it. At that time, 34 per cent did not know.
The latest results showed that support was greatest among lower-income and Black respondents, and that opposition to full membership increases with household income and is higher among White residents and Bermudians.
Bill Zuill, the Editor of the Gazette, said: “As part of its ongoing reporting on the debate over full membership of Caricom, The Royal Gazette commissioned Narrative Research to conduct a poll of Bermuda residents.
“The methodology consisted of telephone interviews with a representative sample of 400 Bermuda residents, conducted last month.”
Narrative Research said that a sample of this size drawn from the population provided results accurate to within plus or minus 4.9 percentage points in 19 out of 20 samples. Some results may not add to 100 because of rounding.
A Green Paper published in March highlighted benefits for full membership, from cheaper everyday essentials to business connections.
The White Paper on the matter is being worked on.
Peter Sanderson, a senior litigation counsel at BeesMont Law, recently questioned the impact full membership could have on the island’s immigration policies and the potential knock-on effect on long-term residency in Bermuda.
He said that although Bermuda would not take on the freedom of labour provisions of the Revised Treaty of Chaguaramas, it could still be impacted by the treaty’s “possibly non-negotiable” Article 45.
Responding to the 2026 survey results, Mr Sanderson said: “Only after the White Paper is released will we be able to understand the true implications of joining Caricom.
“These implications could be extremely significant or almost non-existent, depending on which articles are signed up to.
“It is likely that Caricom will be a major change as to how Bermuda is governed. This type of change is usually effected via a referendum or, at the very least, by Parliament on the basis of a clear democratic mandate in an election manifesto.
“The PLP’s 2025 manifesto said nothing about joining Caricom. It is therefore very concerning that this is being pushed forward without any democratic mandate.
“The PLP is also taking a risk by proceeding in this way.”
Mr Sanderson said the Government needed the support of either the One Bermuda Alliance or governor-appointed senators to approve any Caricom arrangements.
He added: “The Senate might struggle to justify voting in favour of joining Caricom if they see flaws in the democratic processes leading up to it. There will be sentiment that there has been some sort of stitch-up.”
Mr Sanderson said the Government risked losing support in its base if the White Paper “turns out not to live up to the sales pitch”.
Dwayne Robinson, the Shadow Minister of Home Affairs, said the apparent decline in support compared with 2025 lent credibility to the OBA’s claim that the Government Green Paper was light on detail as Bermudians remained “unconvinced”.
“It shows that Bermudians want facts and straight talk over rhetoric,” he said.
Mr Robinson added that there should be 50 per cent support “at the very least” to move forward on the issue.
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