Hundreds of voters and possibly one candidate are expected to be missing from the polling station at the Warwick South Central by-election today.Devrae Noel-Simmons, of the United Bermuda Party, was last night recovering from surgery to remove his appendix after falling seriously ill 24 hours before the vote to replace former Premier Ewart Brown in Constituency 26.Meanwhile a mixture of bad weather, low-profile campaigning and apathy are all contributors to a likely low turnout, according to observers.Progressive Labour Party candidate Marc Bean is considered such a strong favourite many PLP supporters might not attend St Mary's Church Hall, especially with Bermuda Weather Service forecasting showers, cold temperatures and gale force winds.And with recent rowing in the UBP ranks, the Bermuda Democratic Alliance is hoping Sylvan Richards can collect enough votes to cause an upset in the fledgling party's first election.Mr Noel-Simmons was taken to hospital yesterday morning and diagnosed with appendicitis before having an operation in the early evening.Last night his wife Susie said he made it through the surgery, but would “absolutely not” be at the polling station and was expected to be recovering in hospital for the next three to five days.Speaking from his hospital bed as he awaited surgery, he told The Royal Gazette: “I'm fine, I'm just not impressed with this situation I'm in.“It's weird, one of those things. It couldn't have happened at a worse time. If I can get an ambulance to drop me at the polling station then I'll certainly be there.”Mr Bean and Mr Richards both wished Mr Noel-Simmons a fast and full recovery.Political commentator Charles Jeffers, the former National Liberal Party leader, last night predicted less than 50 percent of eligible voters would show up today.“I think there will be a small turnout,” said Mr Jeffers.“I think PLP supporters feel it's in the bag so there will be voter apathy. This campaign has been so low-profile some people may not even remember there is a by-election.”Parliamentary Registrar Randy Scott added: “Historically, by-elections have a low turnout. Of course the weather does not help when it's rainy and cold.“Our ads, we hope, have kept this event in front of constituents in Warwick South Central. Let's hope that there is a good turnout. We've done our part. Hopefully the candidates have done theirs.”PLP press officer Curtis Williams argued the party has been working hard and believes that will be reflected in the turnout.Mr Jeffers said turmoil within the UBP over the selection of convicted drugs offender Mr Noel-Simmons could give the BDA a chance.“I believe the BDA is liable to win second place,” he said. “I think that if you look at the three candidates, you will see that Richards certainly speaks well, he's what people are looking for: he's involved in international business and been around the block a couple of times.“This may be an opportunity for people to send a message. The BDA have the most to gain.”Dr Brown defeated the UBP's Roderick Simons by 310 votes at the last election, but Mr Jeffers said much of that margin was down to the former Premier's personality and profile.Mr Bean, a former PLP senator who has previously lost twice in UBP strongholds, has made few public comments since being picked as candidate, but last week he told a meeting family spirit can help beat crime such as break-ins in Pearman's Hill.The PLP said in a statement yesterday: “For the past three months, Marc and his campaign team have walked the hills and valleys of Warwick South Central. He has met the voters where it matters most: on the doorstep.“Marc has felt the heartbeat of this close-knit community. Marc has been made aware of the issues concerning the residents. Crime in the form of break-ins, the need for speed-bumps in some areas, and developing the PHC Sports Club have been verbalised by the constituents. Marc has listened, and as a Member of Parliament, will ensure that these concerns are elevated to the heights necessary.“Marc has a history of working diligently on behalf of the people of Bermuda. Marc has a passion for youth development, and firmly believes that as a country and a community we need to bridge any divides, be they perceived or real, between the elders and the youth.”Mr Noel-Simmons, a body builder and security guard new to the political scene, has said he will focus on local issues such as tackling safety problems in Olivebank Community Field and Tribe Road Number Five.He said yesterday: “Until I became ill on Saturday, it had been going fabulous. Great. I couldn't have asked for better people to be on my team. Constituents had welcomed me into their homes and told me what needs to be done.”UBP leader Kim Swan said in a statement: “Devrae is such a strong character that it would not be surprising if he turned up at the polling station. Bermuda today needs the strongest possible community leadership.“We need people on the ground who can listen, understand and carry forward the concerns, issues and hopes of everyday people. Devrae is absolutely that kind of leader. Warwick needs strong leadership and Devrae will provide it, of that I have no doubt.”Mr Richards, a former PLP supporter who works in reinsurance, has pledged to improve neighbourhood pride and get to grips with simple tasks Government has failed to deal with, such as the overgrown Tribe Road and trash problems in Random Lane.He said yesterday: “People will see in me in the community, getting a lot of feedback that they haven't seen. I will be where they are, in the community, at the bowling alley, gas station or wherever.“I will listen to them and together we will solve whatever problems or issues they mention. My mandate will be: let's work together; we can empower ourselves and make the improvement where we can, not just wait for Government to do it.”BDA leader Craig Cannonier said: “Our movement is a response to the need to change the way politics is conducted in this country.“I am confident that Sylvan Richards will make a strong showing which will send the message to our opponents that the politics of division is passed and the time has come for a politics rooted in respect for each other and the need for positive change.“We certainly believe that the voters of Warwick South Central will send a strong message to both the United Bermuda Party and the Progressive Labour Party.“Sylvan has worked hard and understands the issues of the constituency. As a first-time candidate for political office, Sylvan represents a new breed of people willing to give more of their time and commitment to improving our country.”l You can follow the election count and result at The Royal Gazette website today, through our ‘Follow it Live' feature at www.royalgazette.com