When Premier Paula Cox announced recently that the economy was recovering, this newspaper speculated that perhaps she had information that the public had not yet seen.That was because the economic picture otherwise looked gloomy, and she did not produce any information to back up her statement.Even the few bits of good news including a reinsurer increasing its staff in Bermuda was not enough to offset the bad news, including the high level of non-performing loans and mortgages being reported by the banks.Then the Retail Sales Index came out for July, which reported a sharp increase in sales, both in terms of volume and value.Indeed, the 6.2 percent rise in value of sales and the 4.3 percent increase after taking out inflation were the highest percentage increases in some time.Part of the increase was due to a 64 percent rise in vehicle sales, which have been severely depressed for several years.Most other store sectors also saw rises, although food and liquor sale increases were due almost entirely to rising prices while discounting in the apparel store sector — like cars — contributed to that increase.Also contributing to the rise was the fact that there were two more shopping days in July than there were in 2011, as Cup Match falling in August and not July.That’s an 8.2 percent increase in shopping days, which arguably should translate into a similar increase in sales. So perhaps the spike was not so impressive.Having said that, any increase in sales is welcome, and the real test will be how sales hold up in August, when there will be two fewer shopping days due to Cup Match.It is significant that the level of overseas shopping fell for the eighth time in nine months. That seems to be a truer barometer of consumer confidence, although changes to the rules on Customs declarations may also have an impact.The Royal Gazette’s recent polling suggests that confidence remains extremely low.Just three percent of the population said they were not concerned, or not at all concerned, about the direction of the economy. Eighty-two concerned were very concerned or concerned, by contrast.Forty-eight percent said the economy was the biggest issue facing Bermuda, just one percentage point less than in May when the last poll took place.All of this shows that confidence in the economy is very low, and while that is the case, it is unlikely that spending or investment will increase, notwithstanding the July retail sales figures.Only when there is growth in Bermuda’s foreign currency earning industries — international business and tourism — will confidence return.And while Government’s efforts to attract Islamic finance to Bermuda are wise, it seems unlikely that this will constitute a significant sector of the economy. Instead, it should be one of several efforts, which also have the advantage of diversification .On that basis, the $100,000 or so spent to sponsor the Islamic finance conference in New York recently looks more like a great opportunity for the Premier to be photographed with Bill Clinton than anything else.If it attracts millions in investment, then it may be money well spent, but that remains to be seen.It is more welcome news that Immigration Minister Patrice Minors says there will be changes to work permit policies. But with a meeting next month of stakeholders to “review proposals and consider counter proposals”, there’s a real risk that little will happen for some time, and this is instead pre-election window-dressing.It is to be hoped that this is not the case. Work permits and Immigration are not the whole problem — and the protection of Bermudians workers remains paramount, but improvements will go a long way to restoring confidence and, in the long term, hiring.