March 20, 2014

Dear Sir,

In all fairness it is a difficult task for commentators of any kind in Bermuda where one of the week’s top stories was the sighting of a pelican flying around the great sound.

But local political commentator Al “shoot from the lip” Seymour has found the loophole to jump through such difficulty, ie by mistaking his opinion for analysis.

Mr Seymour’s article published on March 19 states: “It probably would be a good gesture if for once, members attended a session with a button on their jacket that simply said, ‘Bermuda first’. Maybe they might feel a little closer to being members on the same ship which will only stay afloat with full cooperation from the crew.”

Really? A button will (re)solve unemployment, declining tourism, Jetgate, the 180 on gambling referendum, sewage dumping, etc? Well excuse me while I sneeze. Mr Seymour waxes on “at no time should parliamentarians lose sight of the fact that apart from adults, many young people are watching and listening to elected officials slicing each other up, with less than dignified words when tempers flare”.

Is this stating that Bermudians, especially younger ones are unduly influenced by a politician’s behaviour? Me, I like data like cooked food, so armed with a calculator and some peas and rice, I worked out that the population of voting age Bermudians increased by 2,880 people over the election periods 2007 to 2012 (51,057 to 53,937) but total voter turnout actually fell by 1,166 over the same period (32,028 to 30,862). It seems that Bermudians, especially younger ones, are watching but their reaction is different to what Mr Seymour expects. Perhaps a little less contempt for your fellow Bermudians — especially the younger ones — might be in order Mr Seymour.

Now the data is also possibly showing a decreasing interest in Bermuda’s politics (or maybe its politicians). But this is not necessarily a bad thing. According to physicist and computer scientist Danny Hillis: “In a perfectly functioning democracy, both candidates will appear equally imperfect, voter turnout will often be low, and all elections will end in near ties.”

Hillis says that people will select a “Good Candidate”, who is defined as the one whose opinions are closest to that of the voters. In such a situation, some voters are unhappy with the results but even more would have been unhappy if the “Bad Candidate” (ie the one whose opinions was furthest away from the majority of voters) had won.

In effect candidates gain votes by adopting a position which appeals to the widest cross-section of voters, ie a Best Position where an equal number of voters are on either side of the political spectrum. “The closer one candidate moves toward the Best Position, the closer the other candidate will have to move to remain electable,” said Hillis while the Progressive Labour Party leadership was not listening.

Editorialist Kevin Baldeosingh (Trinidad Express) noted that Hillis’s thesis has an implication for evenly balanced electorates, such as exists in Bermuda. He noted that this balance does not come about by happenstance, (or voter memory as Mr Seymour believes), but it is an almost inevitable outcome of the democratic process, which means the system evolved an integral check and balance.

Baldeosingh’s and Hillis’s analysis ties in with other information such as that supplied by renowned political scientist Bruce Bueno de Mesquita.

According to de Mesquita’s studies: “Democrats are constantly engaged in a battle for best policy ideas to keep their large constituencies happy. As a result, although democrats survive the early months in office more easily than autocrats (the honeymoon period), the perpetual quest for good policy takes a toll, such that only four percent of democrats survive in office for ten years or more.”

It is worthwhile to point out a lack of usable data on the elections.gov.bm website. Not only does the format of presenting data change (without any benefit, let me add) but there is no information available on the 2003 elections and the 1998 election results are impossible to understand. It shows two PLP and two United Bermuda Party persons contesting the same seat and the total number of votes in each constituency is greater than the actual voter turnout. If the Parliamentary Registry (whose name is at the top of the page) is so flippant with its data and/or its presentation then we can see why Mr Seymour has no problem shooting from the lip.

ANTHONY DONAGHY