THIS was supposed to be an analysis of the closest-run election in Bermudian political history, why the Progressive Labour Party won and why the United Bermuda Party lost in a photo-finish ending.

However, given the bitter struggle that broke out in the PLP over the question of who would lead its second administration, my overview of the General Election will now have to take a backseat to more immediate concerns - the ouster of Jennifer Smith and the elevation of Alex Scott to the office of Premier. I have coined the phrase "silent storm" to describe the last-minute grassroots show of force that gave the PLP control of the Government once again. I admit I was not at all sure the PLP would win a second consecutive term on the Government benches until I saw the sudden rush of people who registered themselves at the last minute. And I knew that these were not UBP supporters.

This "silent storm" caught the UBP unprepared and gave the PLP a small but decisive popular mandate last Thursday night. And it would seem another "silent storm", this one formed from the suppressed anger, frustration and disgust of her own MPs, caught former Premier Jennifer Smith unprepared on election night as well.

Jennifer Smith's position as leader of Bermuda's Government had grown increasingly tenuous over the last four years - and the neck-and-neck results of this election exposed this. Just how tenuous that leadership had become was demonstrated by her attempt to cobble together a Cabinet last Friday after fully half of her MPs announced they would not serve under her. Although the jury-rigged Cabinet she presented to the Press contained some hard-working and, in my opinion, some effective Ministers, the overall appearance was one of weakness - so much so that this whole exercise in denying the obvious was an embarrassment.

In fact, this arrogant attempt to ignore a rebellion that had already crippled both her political prestige and ability to govern completely contradicted the conciliatory statements she made at her late-night appearance at the PLP victory celebrations, celebrations which we now know were boycotted by those Parliamentarians opposed to her continued leadership. Outside Alaska Hall she spoke of a learning curve that her first term Government had to undergo, one that was now completed. So her Government would now be more inclusive, more user-friendly, she herself would be more approachable and open to criticism. Yet the bulk of that same first-term Cabinet was in full revolt against her leadership - and in any event most were not included in her designs for a scaled-down second-term Cabinet.

Probably the greatest irony of this election was the fact that the majority of voters in Jennifer Smith's own constituency rejected her. She only fended off a very impressive challenge by the UBP's Kenny Bascome by some eight votes in what was thought of as a safe PLP seat.

She may have had an unlikely saviour in the form of the so-called Gombey Liberation Party candidate Gavin (Sunjata) Smith, who took 16 votes. They were not enough to save his deposit but they were enough to save Jennifer Smith's bacon, creaming off enough protest votes to deny Kenny Bascome an eight-vote victory in the constituency.

I dismiss talk that Mr. Smith was sent to St. George's by the Premier's supporters to do what he probably ended up doing, in fact, saving her seat. It seems altogether too brilliant a move for a so recklessly confident Premier. But if something like this was in the mix, whoever came up with this gambit should not get paid given the course of subsequent events - she may have won the battle but never before has a Bermuda Premier lost the war in so spectacular and humiliating a manner. Given her failure to win a majority of the votes cast in her own constituency, the immediate post-election struggle over the leadership position should not have come as a great surprise to Bermudians given the many previous attempts to unseat Jennifer Smith in recent years.

And one bitter irony the former Premier will now have to mull is the fact that by keeping her detractors so far removed from her personal orbit, Jennifer Smith was in no position to detect any imminent threat to her leadership.

IT was a case of what goes around finally coming around for the former Premier. Her aribitrary decision-making often caught her own Ministers and MPs off-guard. So what better time to spring a trap that would catch her completely unprepared than in the hours following a successful re-election campaign?

There was a certain cold ruthlessness involved, I admit, a cunning logic. But it was now or never for the increasingly unhappy PLP MPs, a twilight time so to speak between the end of one Government and the creation of a new one that would allow for a leadership transition without disrupting the day-to-day affairs of the island.

Long before the public became aware of the unhappiness in the PLP Parliamentary Caucus during Jennifer Smith's first term, I was approached by anti-Smith elements who suggested that I should join a crusade against her leadership by using this Commentary. I refused.

First of all I had no idea who was behind the move to remove her and, like many PLP supporters at the time, we wanted the Government and her Premiership to succeed.

It soon became clear who was going to challenge her leadership; it was former Environment Minister Arthur Hodgson. But many were of the opinion that he should not have mounted a challenge to the leadership so early in the PLP's first term and, worse, he did not indicate why he wanted the Premier removed. Many supporters were outraged that such a challenge was being mounted so soon after the PLP had finally won the Government.

No matter what the PLP constitution said about his right to challenge for the leadership, he ran a weak campaign, playing a cat-and-mouse game with the press as to whether he was going to contest at all. He should have resigned his Cabinet portfolio up front but, then again, Mr. Hodgson may have been led to believe that he had the support to remove her.

He should not have been surprised that he lost his Cabinet position when his challenge failed; that is what happens elsewhere.

But although she was technically correct to remove him, in my opinion the Premier made a terrible public relations mistake when she fired Mr. Hodgson for the people were looking for a sign of healing. Instead, we had a queen who determined that she must defend her position at all cost, and she began isolating herself in her castle, drawing up the all of the drawbridges and pursuing a course that alienated her powerful nobles. She violated the most ancient code of power relations. You secure your nobles' loyalty (even if it is grudging at times) by giving them concessions; you never shut them out altogether. For in the end they will besiege your castle.

To have kept Arthur Hodgson in Cabinet, to have given Dale Butler a Cabinet post, would have won Jennifer Smith the loyalty of the people. Such appointments would not have been interpreted as signs of weakness; rather they would have shown wisdom. I don't have to go to the history books to show you examples of the success of such a course. Just a few years ago former leader of the PLP, L. Fredrick Wade, faced a leadership challenge from Terry Lister, whom he had appounted to the Senate. You may recall what Fredrick Wade said at the time: "I put you there; I can take you away!"

Mr. Lister's challenge to the Wade leadership failed, but he did not lose his head so to speak. L. Frederick Wade kept him in the Senate. Mr. Wade was entirely correct, it is a fundamental tenet of leadership that when there is the opportunity to turn your enemy into a friend and ally, you seize it.

As PLP and Government leader, Premier Smith has not taken this wise path and thus we have witnessed the grim events of this week.

This turn of events has probably brought dismay to a great many PLP supporters, especially those who still supported her leadership and do not understand why this has happened.

But I consider her ouster to be one more step on the road of political maturity for Bermuda. For those who are still anxious and in a state of trauma, consider this: Do you hear gunfire in the streets? Do you see the army manning check points? Are citizens caught in crossfire and dying in the street? Are we begging for an outside power to come and save us? No. This too shall pass and the greatest thing to come out of this will be the affirmation of the concept that leadership is a privilege - it is not a right.