PREMIER Alex Scott could be ousted from office even if he wins next week's Progressive Labour Party leadership battle, political observers claim.

But they also believe that Mr. Scott (pictured) will not face the same fate as his predecessor, Dame Jennifer Smith, who was forced to quit by a group of rebel MPs in 2003.

Instead they argue, MPs are likely to rally behind whoever emerges the victor in the head-to-head clash in a show of strength and unity.

Although Mr. Scott may win the support of the 150 or so delegates at next Friday's battle against former Deputy Premier Ewart Brown, the Premier still needs to have the backing of a majority of MPs in the House of Assembly in order to stay in power.

Under the PLP's own constitution, the party leader can be challenged every four years. Should a challenger come forward, it is the party membership that decides the outcome of any leadership contest.

But that presents an anomaly with the national constitution which declares it is up to the Governor to appoint as Premier whoever he believes has the backing of the majority of MPs.

As a result, should Mr. Scott win grass-roots support but the majority of MPs back Dr. Brown, the Premier's position could become untenable.

Veteran party member and former Government Senator Calvin Smith raised the possibility of a coup within the Parliamentary ranks earlier this week.

And he pointed to the 2003 toppling of former Premier Jennifer Smith to demonstrate how a small number of MPs could overrule the wishes of dozens of delegates. Although she had the support of the party membership, Dame Jennifer was forced to step down as Premier after half of the party's Parliamentarians said they would not work with her.

Writing in The Royal Gazette, Mr. Smith said: "Since the PLP has the majority of seats in Parliament, it is a fair assumption that whoever wins the leadership of the party will automatically become the Premier. This is not necessarily true!

"The PLP Members of Parliament also have to accept that the leader of the party should be the Premier. This certainly didn't happen in 2003. In my view, the method by which the PLP selects a leader must soon become a key item for resolution in a constitutional conference."

It is unclear who will emerge the victor in next week's head-to-head, with many observers saying the contest is too close to call.

Long-time party member Rolfe Commissiong said he believed the Premier had enjoyed substantial support at the start of the campaign, but that momentum was moving with Dr. Brown.

But he also believed it was essential for the party to avoid a suicidal split.

"Our party has historically not handled these challenges and processes well," he said. "When you look at the democratic convention process that takes place in America with the two major parties, to me that speaks to a healthy, mature democratic culture. I would hope that we would see the same sorts of thing taking place here so that we're having a constitutionally sanctioned election for party leader and other officers, that there will be various candidates, and that there will be a good, healthy clean fight and that once the delegates have made their selections then we all come back together to then carry the fight to our political opponents. That would speak to a healthy mature party and I still feel that that can be achieved in this instance."

One party member, who asked not to be named, suggested that, should Parliamentarians fail to endorse the result of the delegates' vote, any administration would be unable to govern.

"It would be difficult to conceive of any group being able to go forward if that were the case," the party member said.

But he added that such a scenario was unlikely to happen as most MPs would wish to avoid a bloodbath.

One constitutional expert, who also asked not to be identified, suggested that any confusion over the result could lead to Parliament being dissolved and a General Election being called.

Section 49 (1b) of the Bermuda Constitution states: "If the office of Premier is vacant and the Governor considers that there is no prospect of his being able within a reasonable time to appoint to that post a person who can command the support of the majority of the members of the House of Assembly, the Governor, acting in his discretion, may dissolve the legislature."

But the expert pointed out it was most likely that whoever wins the leadership contest would get the backing of MPs, and that Parliament would not have to be dissolved.