Invariably, by-elections are seen as barometers of the standings of political parties in the middle of a Parliamentary term.

The Pembroke West by-election, caused by the resignation of United Bermuda Party MP Gary Pitman, will almost certainly be watched closely by both parties election strategists for signs of how they stand. The result could determine whether or not the Progressive Labour Party opts for an early Election call.

For all the hype surrounding by-elections, they do not always prove to be true indicators of General Elections. Of the three by-elections before the 1998 General Election, the UBP won handily in Paget East and Devonshire North and went on to lose the Election.

The more accurate harbinger of the 1998 Election took place in Hamilton East when the Derrick Burgess of the PLP trounced Francis Furbert of the UBP in what had previously been considered to be a marginal seat. Both in terms of turnout and the result, that result foreshadowed the 1998 General Election.

Pembroke West is likely to be held by the UBP in the by-election. A traditional UBP stronghold, Mr. Pitman and Erwin Adderley each out-polled Carvel van Putten by some 300 votes and at this stage, there is little reason to think Mr. Pitman's successor should do any different.

But both parties will be looking for any swings in one direction or the other as they begin to gear up for the next General Election.

Because this is a UBP stronghold, the PLP has less to lose than the UBP. If it is heavily defeated, it can point to the fact that it is difficult area for them and to the mid-term for not doing well. Conversely, if the PLP does well, it can enjoy the success.

That does not mean that they should not take the poll seriously. And this is an opportunity for the party to showcase and blood potential new candidates. It may choose to run Mr. van Putten again, on the basis that he ran in 1998 and is well known in the area. That strategy was not especially successful in Smith's South, where Premier's chief of staff Sen. David Burch failed to make any headway on his 1998 result. The UBP and its new leader Dr. Grant Gibbons have more at stake. This is a seat that the UBP is expected to win and should win handily. A close result would suggest that the UBP has lost its way.

Inevitably it will be seen as a test of Dr. Gibbons' popularity in the UBP heartland. He has a chance to put his stamp on the party by showing the kind of candidate he can attract and the kind of campaign that he and his team can mount.

This is an opportunity for both parties to debate the major issues of the day and to begin to stake out their positions and to crank up their election machinery.

In spite of the fact that this election is taking place in a safe seat, there are national issues which should be widely aired. The economy, Constitutional change, Caricom membership, the state of tourism and the continued problems in areas like housing and education are all issues which the parties and their candidates should be putting their positions and defending them. There is an opportunity for a wide and thoughtful debate on the problems facing the Island, and both parties should grasp the nettle.