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Scott?s fancy footwork

Premier Alex Scott's latest Independence initiative ? discussing the idea in London of holding a General Election and a Referendum on Independence at the same time ? seems likely to stir up a hornet's nest from both sides of the political aisle.

The idea is not a new one. There have been proposals over the years to make Independence a ballot question at every General Election. The idea is that this would end the often distracting Independence debates that seem to crop up once a decade.

In theory, this would take some of the heat out of the question, although it could make Independence an election issue even in the years when there is no particular momentum for it.

Nonetheless, Mr. Scott's discussions with Foreign Office junior minister Lord Triesman on the idea suggest that he is edging towards the idea of a Referendum.

Officially Mr. Scott has never come out against a Referendum, whereas he has been sceptical, if not hostile to the idea in the past.

But politicians are also realists, and with 13,000-plus people signing a petition for a referendum and polls suggesting a vast majority of voters want to decide the issue that way, Mr. Scott must know that he is banging his head against a brick wall.

And after the disaster of the Bermuda Independence Commission report, he must also know that he has to give something up if he wants to have a chance to get this initiative back on track.

To some degree, the move places the Opposition in a box, given its insistence on a Referendum.

Now Mr. Scott can say that he is offering one, albeit one tied to an election which could be held as late as 2008, thus prolonging the debate. The Opposition has already said it wants a referendum by as soon as next March.

But there may well be more ire for the Premier's position from his own supporters, or at least those who have backed the election route.

Certainly, it flies in the face of the Progressive Labour Party's historic dislike of referenda, especially on Independence. The party has argued that Independence is too complex to be debated as a single question in a referendum and that an election is the best way forward.

Having done that, and having made that argument vigorously before the BIC (while distinguishing between the Government and party), these officials may now have to make the argument that a referendum is actually OK, provided that it is held in conjunction with a General Election. That will take some pretty fancy footwork.

But it may be a risk that they have to take, because it is more than likely that Mr. Scott is getting some pressure from MPs and other party officials who know that Independence is damaging the party's ability to get votes.

Of course, it may be that this is truly a case of the Government listening to the people and coming up with a compromise position.

But cynics ? and there are a lot of them about these days ? are more likely to believe that the Government, seeing that Independence may cost it the election is now shifting the issue off to a referendum on the assumption that it may then retain power, even if Independence goes down in flames.