ANALYSIS-Sectarian strife looms over Lebanon crisisBEIRUT (Reuters) — A political crisis in Lebanon could spill into violence between Sunni and Shi'ite Muslims whose leaders stand at opposite ends of the rift, mirroring the sectarian divide in Iraq.The leaders are split on political issues. But sectarianism has crept into the debate and on to the streets, where tension rose further this week after the assassination of a Christian cabinet minister.

The most pessimistic are forecasting a new civil war in a country still rebuilding from its last. Many Beirut residents say they are expecting street skirmishes at the very least.

Dominant on one side of the chasm is Saad al-Hariri, backed by the United States, France and Sunni Muslim Saudi Arabia. He inherited his assassinated father's mantle as Lebanon's strongest Sunni leader and his allies control government.

On the other are the opposition led by Hezbollah and Amal, supported by Syria and Shi'ite Iran. They command the loyalty of the vast majority of the country's Shi'ites.

They have been at loggerheads over issues including how much say the opposition should have in government.

"We are too close to an Iraqi scenario. Sunni and Shia can easily find a way to a conflict, to fight each other. I don't know how or when, but I feel it coming," columnist Sateh Noureddine told Reuters.

Noureddine has been warning of an impending Sunni-Shi'ite clash for several weeks in As-Safir newspaper, one of Lebanon's most widely read dailies.

"Unfortunately there is a state of denial, trying to avoid any discussion. But it is here, it exists and it represents a real danger for stability," he said.

Shi'ites went on to the streets on Thursday, chanting obscenities at Sunnis in response to what they said were insults against Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah at the funeral of Pierre Gemayel, the Christian minister killed on Tuesday.

Lebanon's 1975-1990 civil war started as a conflict between Christians and Muslims. This time Christian leaders are split between the camps, blurring the picture.

The Sunni-Shi'ite split is much clearer. Together, the sects make up 60 percent of the population, according to a recent survey. Shi'ites just outnumber Sunnis. The immediate focus of concern is that peaceful protests pledged by Hezbollah to demand a change in government could spark a clash. Hezbollah and Amal this month quit cabinet after the collapse of talks on expanding the say of the opposition.

"There are fears on the ground that the street might beat the politicians in moving to a clash," analyst Rafik Nasrallah told Reuters. The Hezbollah leader has accused his opponents of seeking to turn a political split into a sectarian divide by whipping up fears that the Shi'ites plan to challenge Sunni power in Lebanon.

"There is an attempt to present the political conflict, or struggle, or crisis in Lebanon as if it is between the Shi'ites and Sunnis and this is totally untrue," he said last week.

"One side sees itself in a position where, if it wants to defend itself, then it only has one option", he said. "That it shields itself today in Lebanon behind the noble Sunni sect."

Hariri said last week he could "certainly" feel Sunni-Shi'ite tension in the street.

Part of the reason is a belief that Hizbollah and Amal want to derail an international tribunal to try suspects in the assassination of Rafik al-Hariri, Saad's father.

They think Syria's allies in Lebanon want to protect Damascus, which they blame for the killing. Syria denies involvement.

Hariri said that the tension could be relieved if "everyone" was convinced of the need for the tribunal.

Meanwhile, Nasrallah has turned up criticism of the government over the sensitive issue of its handling of this year's war between Hezbollah and Israel.

He has accused the ruling majority of betting that Israel's campaign, mainly targeted on Shi'ite areas, would destroy Hezbollah's weapons for their own gain.

Hezbollah was the only group allowed to keep its weapons at the end of the civil war to fight Israeli troops occupying south Lebanon. Israel withdrew in 2000.

Hezbollah's military dominance over other Lebanese groups would preclude a civil war, Lebanese historian Kamil Salibi told Reuters. "I can't see how they are going to go to war against each other," Salibi said.

"The crisis could lead to talking and talking or it could lead to blows in one form or another. I'm not making any plans to leave, but it's unpleasant."