Former Premier Alex Scott's comments on Friday in the Bermuda Sun may have been cryptic, but the message surely was not: Premier Dr. Ewart Brown should watch his back.

To be sure, the recent history of the leadership of the Progressive Labour Party is almost Macbeth-like in its twists and turns.

But Dr. Brown, having first helped to force out Dame Jennifer Smith and then having ousted Mr. Scott, must know that he who lives by the sword dies by the sword. And there can be no doubt that that was what Mr. Scott was talking about. Of course the PLP has to get re-elected first, but even if it does, one would imagine that will not be enough.

It should be remembered that Dr. Brown was put into the leadership on the back of a challenge that criticised Mr. Scott and Dame Jennifer for not going enough on social issues. He promised to re-energise the PLP, take it to "another level" and to destroy the United Bermuda Party.

Indeed, he said he would win 30 seats. The most likely outcome for Mr. Scott then was to hang on to power with a much reduced majority. Thirteen months on, and it certainly seems unlikely that the UBP will be "destroyed". The polls released by each party effectively make this election anyone's to win.

The greater mystery is why Dr. Brown chose to call the election last month on the heels of the Government's defeat in the Privy Council and with a host of other problems around.

With the benefit of hindsight, the sensible time to strike would have been in the spring when the UBP was in disarray. By leaving it this long, the UBP has impressively regrouped and it is the PLP that, while not a house divided, is having trouble keeping its internal arguments "in the house".

At the same time, and in this lengthy campaign, there is still plenty of electioneering to be done, the campaign has not gone exactly smoothly for the PLP.

Controversy over the Bermuda Cement Company, the Police raid on the Auditor General's office, the muddle over whether Independence will be decided by referendum or election, the obvious electioneering announcements to re-open the St. George's Police Station and to "renew" the PGA Grand Slam of Golf have done nothing to help the PLP.

And it must be said that one wonders at the Premier's blaming of his Press Secretary, Glenn Jones, over the Independence blunder. What happened to "the buck stops here"?

Aside from the decision to launch the campaign now rather than wait until next year, there must surely be some unease over the relentless focus on Dr. Brown both in the PLP's campaign literature and on the trail.

Dr. Brown probably should get a good deal of attention when it comes to tourism and transport, since he has retained those Ministries, but there were more fulsome mentions of him in the health progress report than there were of the current Minister, although to be fair, Michael Scott is the fourth Minister to hold the portfolio in a little more than a year.

This might make sense if Dr. Brown had the kind of overwhelming popularity that Sir John Swan, for example, had in the mid to late 1980s. But Dr. Brown's favourability is 46 percent according to the PLP's own polls, while those people who view him unfavourably stand at 42 percent. So why promote him so hard?

As things stand, it is likely that this election is going to be very close, and there is a good chance that the PLP, if it is re-elected, will have a reduced majority. Certainly, getting to 30 seats seems highly unlikely. Given that, Dr. Brown should not be surprised to hear knives being sharpened in the back rooms of Alaska Hall.