United Bermuda Party MPs and officials go back to the polls this week to elect a leader – potentially their fifth in 11 years – as Shadow Finance Minister E.T. (Bob) Richards challenges party leader Kim Swan.

At stake is the future of the party, which has lost its way since suffering a third election defeat in 2007 and has now seen five of the 14 MPs elected then leave the party.

Is there any point? In many ways, the UBP is imploding, suffering from defections both at the parliamentary level and within its organisation. That and a lack of confidence in what it stands for seem to be at the root of its problems.

At the same time, the party has failed to grasp onto any number of issues. Indeed, the irony of this is that this should be the best of times for an opposition party. The Government is led by an unpopular Premier who has not fully recovered from the Uighur controversy or the gambling bill defeat, the economy is reeling and the PLP itself is divided.

Yet the UBP has been so beset by its own internal divisions that it has failed to take advantage of these issues.

Inevitably, some of the blame for that must lie with Mr. Swan, who evidently refused to see the need for the UBP to change until the three dissidents who will now form a new party were out the door and was also held responsible for the debacle of the no confidence vote. That was an audacious gamble that failed, and its failure rests with Mr. Swan.

It must be said that Mr. Swan took on the leadership when no one else wanted it, and he deserves credit for that. He is also perhaps the ultimate UBP loyalist, having started working for the party when he was a young man, and having famously fought for a seat time after time before winning.

And no one doubts his commitment to Bermuda, or his passion for helping the underprivileged in Bermuda. That should have been a formidable weapon in revitalising the UBP and broadening its base support.

But unless he can persuade the rump of his party that he is the man to get the UBP off to a fresh start, it seems unlikely that he will be leader after this week, or that he should be.

Mr. Richards also brings some strengths to the table. He is literally a child of the UBP as the son of party founder and Bermuda's first Premier, Sir Edward Richards. And he brings intellectual heft to the job, as well as a good track record as Shadow Finance Minister since 2007.

But Mr. Richards has been branded as a poor campaigner. Like Mr. Swan he suffered a number of election defeats before 2007 when he got elected in Michael Dunkley's old seat. But if anything, the victory reinforced Mr. Richards' reputation as a vote loser as he took a seemingly safe seat and turned it into a marginal constituency.

That may be unfair; Mr. Richards was running against a well known opponent while he was relatively new to the area. And results varied widely in the 2007 election from 2003. But Mr. Richards has not shown an ability to win votes in any of the elections he has run in, and that is a mark of a successful politician.

So Mr. Richards must convince colleagues that not only can he win votes for his own campaign, but that he can do so for his colleagues as well.

Like Mr. Swan, he is also a relative latecomer to the reform wing of the UBP, although it must be said that just what constitutes reform seems to vary from MP to MP.

What is certain is that the UBP is perilously close to extinction. It has lost five MPs in less than two years and now faces a rival Opposition party as well.

The winner of this year's vote needs to be confident, charismatic, have a clear vision of what the UBP should be in the future, be able to bring disaffected and disillusioned MPs and supporters back while attracting new supporters – all while rebuilding an organisation that is literally disintegrating by the day.

That's a tall order – and whether Mr. Richards or Mr. Swan can pull it off is the decision the UBP will have to decide this week.