The Progressive Labour Party can take some pleasure from the most recent Research.bm poll results, which showed its share of the vote improving to 40 percent from 36 percent in the last poll in October.

That this should occur in the middle of a bleak economy when the Island is reeling from a crime wave demonstrates the PLP's extraordinary resilience.

It has also been assisted by the split in the Opposition, which will often drive people to the party that seems most unified.

But the core loyalty of the PLP's supporters is still a fascinating phenomenon in Bermuda politics.

It comes despite the fact that:

¦ Premier Dr. Ewart Brown's favourability and approval ratings remain in the 25 percent range;

¦ Confidence in the economy remains low, while concern about crime is extraordinarily high; and

¦ The public's approval of the PLP's performance since the 2007 General Election is stuck at 28 percent while disapproval stands at 38 percent.

It may be that some of the loyalty to the PLP stems from the fact that Dr. Brown has signalled his October departure and will likely be replaced by Finance Minister Paula Cox, whose popularity remains extraordinarily high at 68 percent – despite the weak economy and the poor state of Government finances.

However, it seems also clear that it is also due to the weakness of the political opposition. If approval of the PLP's performance stood at 28 percent and disapproval at 38 percent, approval of the UBP's performance was just seven percent while disapproval was a dismal 58 percent.

Worse, the split in the UBP and the formation of the Bermuda Democratic Alliance has split the opposition very neatly, with the UBP getting 21 percent support and the BDA 16 percent.

Combined, that equals 37 percent, which is within striking distance of the PLP's 40 percent. It is worth noting that the UBP could only garner 26 percent in the October poll, while the then unnamed BDA scored six percent.

With the PLP's share of the vote going up by four percent, and the UBP's going down by five percent, that suggests that a large part of the BDA's still small base has come from people who were previously undecided. And "don't know" did fall from 30 percent to 21 percent in the poll when people were asked what party they would vote for.

That's good news for the BDA because it suggests it can energise people, especially younger people, who were either disillusioned with, or repelled by, the main parties.

However, what should be of concern is that a disproportionately high part of its support is white (26 percent of all white voters), while it drew just seven percent of black voters, although "Other" races gave a plurality of support to the BDA at 34 percent.

So what does the poll tell us?

¦ That the PLP retains a solid bloc of support that will remain loyal through almost any up or down.

¦ That the UBP is not dead, although public support is waning and its support among younger people is weak.

¦ That the BDA has some appeal, but also has an enormous amount of work to do if it is to be viable; and

¦ The age old lesson that a divided opposition is by definition a weak opposition.