Zigzags, straight lines and moving into uncharted territory
After decades of spending, accumulating, and polluting our natural environment, we can now hear our planet Earth give out a huge sigh of relief. At last, demand for natural resources and 'things' is slipping in the current financial meltdown. Perhaps we can now take some of the emphasis off the financial economy and begin to look seriously at the moral economy that determines how we respect, trust and care for each other and our planet. But even as we (hopefully) transition to a kinder, gentler society, we must give urgent attention to the ongoing ageing of our population and the impact this is having on every man, woman and child in Bermuda and elsewhere.
Financial bubbles burst, and recessions recede in a relentless up and down, but the ageing of our population is moving in a straight line – upwards – until the number of seniors reaches approximately 22 percent of our population by 2030. That means two out of every five persons will be of retirement age, but don't be fooled by the 'distant' 2030. The percentage of older persons is growing each and every day, and this has profound implications for our economies, both financial and moral.
Unlike the great depression of the 1930s and the last major recession of thirty years ago, the current financial meltdown comes in the middle of a massive and unprecedented demographic shift in our part of the world. There are 78 million baby boomers in the USA alone, and those born in 1946 are beginning to retire and look to their pension funds for income that, in all likelihood, is no longer there.
Also, along with many others, I have written about the importance of recruiting, retaining, and retraining the older worker to fill all the jobs left vacant by fewer younger workers. But now, jobs are being written off at such an alarming rate that baby boomers are caught between a rock and a hard place. As an age cohort, they have not saved enough for their retirement, and even those who did save and invest have lost literally billions of dollars in the financial meltdown. And once older workers are laid off, they are unlikely to be rehired or find another job any time soon.
Also, tragically, because of the appalling levels of deceit, fraud and gross mismanagement of funds that have been carefully accumulated by people over a life-time of hard work and saving, there are seniors out there who are facing an abyss. They are beyond the normal working age, they may or may not own their own home, but their income has been drastically reduced by losses in their personal accounts and pension funds.
What now? We are heading into uncharted territory. Not only have individuals, pension funds, banks and insurance companies gone "bust", but so have cities and, in the case of Iceland, an entire country!
Most economic cycles look like zig-zags when placed on a graph – a few ups and downs here and there, but there is eventually a bottom and always a top. The old adage "buy on the way down, sell on the way up" is as good now as it ever was, and provides a degree of optimism for those who either have cash in their bank accounts, or are young enough to weather this storm and rebuild their financial health in the future.
In 2009 (and beyond) we will be dealing with the zig-zag of our economy as it splutters through this recession, as well as the straight line of an unrelenting ageing of our population. And a recession means less money in Government's coffers at a time when demand for financial and housing assistance is increasing, health care costs are rising, and more people are claiming their social insurance benefits.
There is another old adage: fail to plan and you plan to fail. Failing to plan for the unprecedented impact of an ageing population on every man, woman and child is a recipe for disaster, particularly in this gloomy economic climate. Ignoring the ageing of our population is not an option. We need to pull together as a people to find solutions and plan for some tough years ahead – for everyone's sake.
Marian Sherratt is Executive Director, Bermuda Council on Ageing. She writes on issues concerning our ageing population each month in The Royal Gazette. Send email responses to info@bdaca.org