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Insurers see up to $10b in Wilma losses

NEW YORK (Reuters) ? Insurers and disaster modellers foresee up to $10 billion in losses from Hurricane Wilma, putting it among the ten most expensive hurricanes ever, but well below Katrina?s $35 billion cost.

But shares of insurers with heavy exposure to Florida, like Allstate Corp., barely budged yesterday, in part because the state caps insurers? losses from hurricanes.

?The good news is that Florida, because it gets hit by so many hurricanes, is probably the state most financially prepared to handle this,? said Anthony Diodato, a property-casualty analyst with AM Best Co., which rates insurance companies.

The storm could trigger big insurer payouts as it hit areas with high property values, like Palm Beach and Miami. Wilma is now back over the Atlantic after the storm?s centre hit land near Marco Island and swept across Florida.

Risk Management Solutions, the world?s leading provider of products and services for the management of catastrophe risk, said losses are likely to range from $6 billion to $10 billion.

Disaster modelling agency EQECAT gave early estimates of insured damages in the wide range of $2 billion to $6 billion. Later in the day, AIR Worldwide estimated insured damages at $6 billion to $9 billion. Both companies are privately held.

Insurance Information Institute (III) chief economist Robert Hartwig said that based on previous storms, damages would be $3 billion to $4 billion. III is a trade group that represents the insurance industry.

If losses were as high as $9 billion, Wilma would be the third-most-expensive hurricane of all time to hit the US, according to III data.

Seven of the ten most expensive hurricanes in history have occurred within the last 14 months.

Hurricanes typically hit home and auto insurers the hardest, said Julie Rochman, vice president of the American Insurance Association, which represents property and casualty carriers.

Insurers against business interruption would be less affected because most commercial property owners hadn?t fled their properties during the storm, Rochman said.

Companies with the most exposure in Florida are state-owned Citizens Property Insurance Corp., privately held State Farm Mutual Automobile Insurance Co. and Allstate Corp. , according to III.

Allstate?s losses are limited under state law and because the company has reinsurance in Florida, which provides coverage in the event of excessive losses, Mike Trevino, a spokesman for the company, said.

The company must pay $233 million of the loss from the largest two hurricanes to hit in any year. After that, Allstate would pay ten percent of the loss up to $900 million, when its reinsurance policy would kick in. The rest of the funding would come from the Florida Hurricane Catastrophe Fund.

Allstate, which has publicly said it wants to reduce its exposure in coastal areas, has already paid out $3.06 billion from Hurricanes Katrina and Rita.

The Northbrook, Illinois-based insurer has more than 20 percent of both the auto and homeowners? markets in Florida.

Citizens Property, Florida?s state-run high-risk insurer, has just charged a 6.8 percent premium increase for the four hurricanes last year and is likely to assess policyholders another charge for this year?s storms, Hartwig said.

Much will depend on how hard Wilma hits Florida?s East Coast cities, and where it goes from there.

?Currently the storm is expected to tail off into the Atlantic, but New England could be affected,? said EQECAT?s Thomas Larsen, who?s tracking the storm.

?Wilma has been better than the worst-case scenario, but it?s still bad,? said AIA?s Rochman.