Cyclicals hip again: Bermuda-based Tyco heartily recommended
Suddenly, tractors are sexy. Sheets of shiny aluminium irresistible. A quality chemical firm? One tries but cannot look away.
With brand-name big-cap technology and Internet stocks dominating the marquee for so long, investors have lately shifted their gaze downward toward more reasonably priced cyclical stocks to try to profit from a reviving world economy.
Such a move seems to make sense, though whether it's a sustainable trend is not yet a certainty.
Diverse capital goods company Tyco International Ltd., which is Bermuda based, aluminium producer Alcoa Inc., farm and construction equipment manufacturer Deere & Co. and chemical and biological sciences firm E.I. du Pont de Nemours & Co. are representative of this popular new wave that seems like a very old wave.
"The S&P Technology Index gained 75 percent between early October and the end of March, so some profit-taking from that run is healthy,'' observed Sam Stovall, senior investment strategist with Standard & Poor's. "Investors are disappointed with high-flier stocks of late, but rather than selling and moving into bonds, they're selling and moving into the value stocks.'' So, over the next six months, Stovall would be buying consumer cyclicals. He'd selectively purchase basic materials, capital goods and transportation stocks, while continuing to load up on telecommunications stocks and take advantage of any price weaknesses in technology.
"This will be the strongest year for the American economy in this decade, with a boom in housing, retailing and investment, so what's not to like?'' Peter Canelo, US investment strategist for Morgan Stanley Dean Witter, asked rhetorically. "The global situation has improved, showing up in export orders, and that's a key signal that it's OK to buy some cyclical stocks.'' There's a shift underway to smaller companies and also from growth to value stocks, Canelo believes, thereby pumping life into value portfolios that have been languishing. Envisioning robust 4.5 to five percent US economic growth this year, Canelo considers an ideal asset allocation to be 70 percent stocks, 15 percent bonds and 15 percent cash.
"New money should be put into mid-cap, cyclical or value stocks, though I know traditionally you don't buy a cyclical after it's run up a whole lot, as has been the case in recent weeks,'' acknowledged Marshall Acuff, investment strategist with Salomon Smith Barney. "While the weakened world economy really turbocharged big-cap stocks and hurt cyclicals, that is changing.'' Mid-cap stocks must lead a small-cap recovery because they can't do it on their own, Acuff believes. He pegs US economic growth at 3.5 to four percent this year, with the Federal Reserve unlikely to make any interest rate moves until the rest of the world recovers its economic footing. Salomon Smith Barney's recommended allocation is 55 percent stocks, 35 percent bonds and ten percent cash.
Not everyone's convinced happy days are here again for cyclicals.
"The shift from large-cap growth companies that are overvalued to what some people like to call cyclicals may turn into a meaningful trend, but it is not, in my work, meaningful as of yet,'' said Hugh Johnson, chief investment officer with First Albany Corp. "These stocks are basically doing well because basic materials or industrial sectors have underperformed and are undervalued, while large-cap growth companies outperformed and are overvalued.'' Good news for these traditional companies is that it's starting to look more like a normal business cycle again, Johnson believes. Fundamentals such as rising stock prices, business expansion, rising inflation and rising interest rates could combine to make everything fall into place, though Johnson still wants more evidence. He has 58 percent of his model portfolio in stocks.
Among the best-known examples of the latest trend, the stock of Tyco International is heartily recommended by Canelo, Johnson and Stovall. Alcoa is suggested by both Acuff and Johnson, while Deere is a pick of Acuff and Canelo. Aerospace and climate control company United Technologies is a choice of Canelo and Johnson.
