importance of joint efforts between scientists and reinsurers to improve the predictability of catastrophes such as hurricanes and earthquakes. Dr. Knap was speaking at the Bermuda Insurance Institute luncheon at the Princess Hotel. Dr. Knap believes that by the end of the year researchers will be able to prove that there are predictable changes in the climate depending on the state of the ocean. He said: "We're hoping that what we will be able to get back, and what we are trying to do through this dialogue with insurers, is to find out exactly what they want, how they want data and how they can use it.

"It's pretty important that we are talking about predictions based solely on data, and not someone's subjective opinion. Some of the models that have been used in the past, spit out certain numbers, and then the people have a feeling and they use that and take out all of the statistics out of it. "Scientists now know that that is probably not the right thing to do.'' The Risk Prediction Initiative is a programme that has been worked on since just November, but already key reinsurers, including some from Bermuda, have lined up to help fund the research. More may come on board.

The first meeting of the group that includes Dr. Knap was in February. There are eight scientific groups around the US working on specific components of the effort.

Top scientific minds in prestigious institutions that include MIT, Harvard, Princeton are busy concentrating on key areas of endeavour.

"They are all looking at detailed questions that are being asked in this initiative,'' said Dr. Knap. " Some of these things will work. Some of them won't.

"Some of them will provide data that will be useful and perhaps a lot won't.

We don't know, for example, how far we could go in the prediction of Atlantic Ocean hurricanes. But we are going to find out how far we can take this.

"It's not a science programme where we create more questions. That's the way it is normally in science. Here, we will be able to say that such a thing will happen, with a degree or percentage of certainty.'' Dr. Knap also indicated that scientists are trying to determine the inter-connectivity of the global climate pattern.

He said: "If ocean conditions make hurricanes happen in the Atlantic, it may that the same ocean change will make conditions in another part of the world more benign, or less tropical cyclones.

"Wouldn't it be wonderful if hurricanes were correlated negatively with typhoons in the Pacific. It's useful to see what the relationships are and this whole question of tele-connections is a very important part of what we are trying to do.''