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Insurers could face Lloyd's losses

have invested heavily in Lloyd's of London insurance syndicates, may lose money as the London insurance market forecasts losses for the 1998 year.

Reuters news agency reported on Friday that Lloyd's estimates a minimum 60 million pound loss for the 1998 underwriting year -- the first loss after five consecutive years of profits.

And unlike the early 1990s, when Lloyd's came close to bankruptcy and individuals lost their homes and wealth in order to pay claims, it is the corporate investors who could shoulder the greatest share of losses now.

Lloyd's came close to collapse in 1992 after five years of losses totalling 4 billion ($13.08 billion).

As part of its recovery plan, Lloyd's attracted corporate investors in 1994, and now the 4,500 remaining Names -- down from 29,000 in 1990 -- account for less than 30 percent of the market's capacity.

This means that if Lloyd's estimates on Friday are accurate, it is the corporate investors -- mostly British, US and Bermudian insurance companies -- that will lose most money, Reuter said.

Seventy percent of Lloyd's 1996 profit of 606 millon pounds will go to the 13,000 or so Names who invested in that year, accounting for about 70 percent of Lloyd's capital base.

For the 1998 year, analysts say it is fair to assume that corporate investors accounting for 60 percent of capacity in that year will take a similar proportion of losses.

This could mean losses for corporate investors such as Wellington Underwriting Plc, Limit Plc and Lloyd's agencies owned by insurance giants such as ACE Ltd and XL Capital Ltd.

"The 1998 figures we are seeing from syndicates are pretty horrendous on a pure year basis, although releases of reserves from profitable years may offset the loss,'' said one London analyst.

David Wharrier, analyst at insurance rating agency A.M. Best said the worldwide insurance market on a downward swing would not help Lloyd's.

"When insurance market results are good, Lloyd's does slightly better; when results are bad, Lloyd's does slightly worse.'' However, Lloyd's Chairman Max Taylor pointed out on Friday that aggregate losses for Lloyd's does not mean losses for all syndicates -- as some will profit against the trend.

Lloyd's is also playing down the scale of the losses -- saying they are likely to be tens of millions of pounds instead of billions as before.

But the prospect of losses does not help Lloyd's outlook.

Analysts say that now 73 percent of Lloyd's capacity is controlled by corporate investors -- mostly insurance companies in cut-throat competition in the open market -- Lloyd's principle of mutuality is at risk.

In the early 1990s, Names pulled together to pay each others' losses. If there are losses in 1998, one Lloyd's particpant said it is hard to see professional insurance companies "paying for other people's mistakes.'' But if Lloyd's loses its mutuality, then it will also lose its right to licences to sell insurance around the world -- the very reason corporates have invested in the market.