election result.

But the Finance Minister claims the election result will have a crucial impact on the economy.

The Hon. David Saul says big firms are planning major building projects in the Island but have their schemes on hold, waiting for a UBP win.

"Once we've won and are back in there I think you'll see an immediate upturn in the economy,'' he told The Royal Gazette yesterday.

"There will be a construction move, this will really help the local firms and the small unemployment that we have, because construction is the wheel that drives the economy.'' This chimes with the familiar Government theme that a PLP win would damage confidence in the Country and scare international business into activating its "escape clauses''.

Dr. Saul is attacked almost as often for his "Dr. Know-it-all'' image as the PLP team is criticised for alleged inexperience and ignorance.

Shadow Finance Minister Mr. Eugene Cox failed to produce any comments for this article. But he would presumably say Dr. Saul's image masks mistaken Government policies which have worsened the effects of recession.

The conflicting claims are confusing. But what voters do know is whether they have enough cash. Whether they have a job. And if they do, whether it is safe.

Whether, in short, they feel secure.

It is this gut feeling that can make the economy a crucial ballot box factor.

The Minister and his Shadow seem to have hedged their bets on whether the recession is over.

After an apparently clear statement that it was, Dr. Saul now stresses the Island is "gradually emerging''.

He said yesterday: "It will take another 10 to 12 months before we can say we're clearly out of it.'' After suggesting on Tuesday that Bermuda should maybe have its own definition of recession based on full employment, Mr. Cox stated: "Bermuda has been in recession, and is now on the road to recovery.'' The statistics seem to be mainly encouraging -- visitor arrivals going up, international business incorporations going up, inflation down, shop sales up (if shaky) and the stock exchange up.

But the spectre of US military withdrawal haunts the Island. And there is no doubt that many Bermudians are still hurting.

Unemployment, once virtually unknown, is still with us -- if small compared to many other Western countries. The downturn killed almost 1,000 jobs in 1992 alone, mainly in hotels and stores.

The UBP's election promise is to aim for two percent growth each year by boosting both tourism and international business.

"We treat each one with the same importance,'' said Dr. Saul yesterday. He said a tax review would lead to changes, for example, in Customs duties. "We will be making them more fair, more reasonable and easier for people to understand.'' And he offered this key to a more equal sharing of wealth: "We have developed probably the biggest middle class in the Western world. We want to protect them.'' During the election campaign, Government has also emphasised training and apprenticeships to boost employment.

Mr. Cox, in his Tuesday speech to businessmen, offered this glimpse of the PLP's economic vision.

"We have to grow the economy so that we can assist and train the workforce to fill positions requiring management and technological skills. However, I'm all for growth but not for financing expansion for expansion's sake, without really knowing where it will lead us.'' One authoritative view of the political scene is that Bermudian voters take a well-managed economy for granted. Government gets no credit when things go well, says this view, but risks a whipping if things are bad.

Government has picked its moment for the election. But has it picked right?