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Tales of the Tape: Internal growth may sustain Tyco ascent

NEW YORK (Dow Jones News) -- After years as a high-speed growth company, Tyco International Inc. isn't ready to be forced out of the fast lane just yet.

Tyco has spent several anxious weeks fending off accusations of irregular accounting, and now the Bermuda-based conglomerate is stepping up to its next challenge: to prove that its core businesses are powerful enough to fuel the high-octane growth machine investors have come to know and love.

As the questions about Tyco's aggressive accounting seem to be subsiding and after Tyco said it will forego the pooling acquisitions that have boosted growth, many investors are focusing anew on internal growth.

But analysts and portfolio managers say Tyco, whose stock symbol is TYC, may benefit from this kind of scrutiny. Tyco's operation is firing on all cylinders, they say. Internal revenue growth may dip a bit to a still-impressive 9 percent to 10 percent a year, from 11 percent to 12 percent now, said John G. Inch, an analyst at Bear Stearns & Co.

"Investors now seem to be more focused on whether TYC can continue to grow earnings by 20 percent or more over the next few years,'' said Wendy B.

Caplan, of ING Baring Furman Selz. "We believe that even if TYC does not make any other acquisitions the company will be able to grow earnings at or above that level.'' She's estimating annual growth of 25 percent.

Cautious can't be used to described Tyco's pedal-to-the-metal acquisition style. The company spent more than $30 billion over two years to create a sprawling conglomerate that makes electronic components, health-care and flow-control products and provides fire and security services. Tyco generated $22.5 billion in revenue last year and sports a $74 billion market capitalization. Its stock doubled in two years, cheered on by buy recommendations.

Then came David Tice. In a detailed report published in his "Behind the Numbers'' newsletter in early October, the Dallas money manager said Tyco's pooling deals created reserves that management used to juice the company's financials. The New York Times followed Tice with a critical report of its own.

Tyco quickly and aggressively defended its accounting, saying its methods conform with general accepted accounting practices. Almost every analyst following Tyco also defended the company. Some dismiss analysts' support as knee-jerk favoritism by firms craving investment fees, but Tyco retained strong support on the buy side as well.

Eric Teal, vice president and fund manager at First Union Corp., said he reduced his position in Tyco by 300,000 to 400,000 shares two weeks ago after "the panic selling had subsided,'' but that was because the stock had lost some of its momentum. Teal said his First Capital funds still own 1 million shares of Tyco, and he'd "look to go back in'' when things have calmed a bit.

To counter the barrage of negative talk, Tyco announced a 20 million-share repurchase program, rejiggered its options program for executives and said it won't do pooling deals anymore.

It's the fear that Tyco may have to rein in its acquisition program that has investors worried about growth.

Tyco attacked this concern, as well, with vigor. At its semiannual analyst meeting in New York recently, Tyco presented a thorough picture of its four operations. The sum of management's comments: All operations face bright prospects.

Many analysts came away from the meeting even more impressed with Tyco's underlying businesses. Caplan, for example, raised her rating on Tyco to strong buy from buy after the meeting. "For the foreseeable future, EPS growth could well exceed 20 percent based on 10 percent top-line growth and ongoing margin expansion,'' Caplan said. She also said the company could generate free cash flow of $3.3 billion in fiscal 2000 and $12 billion over the next three years.

What investors will see, analysts hope, is that all four operations contributed solidly to growth for the recently ended fiscal year. The fastest growing and largest operation is telecommunications and electronics, which saw full-year earnings jump 57 percent to $1.43 billion on revenue of $7.92 billion. Acquisitions like AMP Inc. and Raychem plus demand for undersea telecommunications cable helped growth.

Inch pointed out that the electronics business should show organic top-line growth of 10 percent to 11 percent, and margins at the AMP operation should quickly move toward the 25 percent to 26 percent level. The telecommunications business is expected to grow internally at a 20 percent to 25 percent pace.

Tyco is expected to benefit from a strong end-market, as demand for transoceanic cable capacity accelerates with Internet usage, noted Caplan.

Tyco's fire and security business saw a 44 percent jump in fiscal 1999 earnings to $940.4 million from $654.9 million. Sales jumped to $6 billion from $4.74 billion. The company said it added record levels of new accounts per month and showed strength across all regions.