Debt of Greek proportions makes it a tough budget for Darling
LONDON (AP) — Prime Minister Gordon Brown's government will be hamstrung by Britain's perilous financial situation when it delivers its annual budget today — a key moment in its battle to win voters ahead of a national election.
The country's hesitant emergence from its worst recession in decades means that the ruling Labour Party won't be following the time-honoured tradition of offering electorate-friendly giveaways in what may be its last spending plan in power.
Labour's difficult task will be to instead show voters that it has a plan to get the economy back on its feet — while not scaring them off by being too explicit about the future spending cuts that will be necessary to slash the country's record debt levels.
Lagging behind the main opposition Conservative Party in the polls for an election that is expected on May 6, the government is trying to spin its hands-tied position into an example of steady stewardship in times of austerity.
"People want to see a sensible, workmanlike budget," Treasury Chief Alistair Darling said over the weekend.
What they are unlikely to see is any great detail.
Darling has promised not to increase retail sales tax, which rose back up to 17.5 percent at the start of this year after a 2.5 percentage point yearlong reduction, but other potential measures remain deliberately hazy.
Analysts speculate the government might find some money behind the sofa to spend on politically sensitive areas such as health, education and defence.
Cuts in corporation tax are also possible and Darling is tipped to announce the creation of a £2 billion ($3 billion) "green bank" to fund environmentally friendly public sector projects and impose an £80 billion lending target to businesses on the two banks bailed out by the government at the height of the financial crisis.
On the flipside, a likely hike in alcohol and tobacco duties will be far from enough to meet Darling's pledge to halve government borrowing over the next four years. The British government is on track for a record £178 billion budget deficit this year. Borrowings of 12.8 percent of gross domestic product would just pip the 12.7 percent forecast in crisis-hit Greece and would be far above the average six percent for Europe.
The huge deficit is partly due to big expenditure by the government to mitigate the impact of the global credit crisis and economic downturn. It has taken over two troubled mortgage lenders, and holds major stakes in two big banks, Royal Bank of Scotland and Lloyds Banking Group. The Bank of England has poured £200 billion into inflating the money supply, and £400 million has been spent on an incentive programme for new-car buyers. The country's debt to GDP ratio is forecast to reach 82 percent this year, almost double the level two years ago.
The credit rating agencies have issued muted warnings over Britain's fiscal position and the status of the country's "triple-A' sovereign debt rating, which allows the country to borrow relatively cheaply.
"With the UK's budget deficit baring comparison with that of Greece, the markets and credit rating agencies would severely punish any sort of pre-election splurge," said Deloitte economic adviser Roger Bootle.