Loonie declines as risk appetite falls
TORONTO (Bloomberg) — Canada's currency registered its first weekly decline this month amid speculation that a rally in higher-yielding assets such as stocks may have gone too far to be sustained.
The Canadian dollar fell against 13 of its 16 most-traded counterparts tracked by Bloomberg, gaining only against the currencies of New Zealand, Australia and South Africa. All four track with swings in stocks and commodities. The US dollar rose against all but two major currencies as investors' appetite for risk waned.
"It's been a pretty good week for the US dollar in general," said Sacha Tihanyi, a currency strategist in Toronto at Bank of Nova Scotia, Canada's third-largest lender. Looking at the Canadian dollar and the other low-performing currencies this week shows "the evidence of risk aversion is all there".
The Canadian currency depreciated 1.8 percent to C$1.0706 per US dollar on Friday in Toronto, from C$1.0516 on November 13. It fell four straight days this week, the longest losing streak since September 2, and touched C$1.0733, the weakest level since November 9. The currency last posted a five-day loss on Oct. 30. One Canadian dollar buys 93.41 US cents.
Traders will be watching next week's reports on Canada's retail sales and current account for clues on the direction of currency markets, Tihanyi said. The Canadian dollar, nicknamed the loonie for the image of the aquatic bird on the C$1 coin, is up 14 percent this year.
The loonie will strengthen to C$1.04 by year-end, according to the median forecast of 37 economists and analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News.
The loonie has one-year correlation coefficients of 0.70 with the MSCI World and 0.46 with crude oil. Readings of one would mean they move in lockstep.