Reasons to be hopeful about the future of MGM
Q Is there hope for my shares of MGM Mirage? They have been a major disappointment. - PK, via the Internet
A It's easy to see why you're hoping your luck will improve.
The economic downturn has been hard on the largest casino gaming operator in Las Vegas, known for properties such as the Bellagio, Mandalay Bay and Excaliber. Its $8.5 billion CityCenter resort project under construction in that gaming capital has contributed to its financial stress.
While its stock remains somewhat of a gamble amid conflicting opinions about the future, there are positives:
— The company stated in a government filing there is no longer "substantial doubt" about its ability to continue as a going concern. Lender agreements have allowed it to issue new stock and debt, and it says it has enough cash to meet obligations in 2010.
— It reached an agreement with its CityCenter partner, Dubai World, each promising to fulfill payment obligations. Dubai World also dropped a lawsuit that had alleged project mismanagement.
— Ratings agencies upgraded its debt, with some caveats. For example, Fitch Ratings boosted it to "CCC" from "C" but noted that it remained highly leveraged in a difficult global economy.
Shares of MGM Mirage (MGM) are down 51 percent this year following last year's 84 percent decline. By contrast, they rose 56 percent in 2006 and 47 percent in 2005. Longtime majority shareholder Kirk Kerkorian this spring reduced his stake from 53.8 percent to 39 percent.
The consensus Wall Street rating of shares of MGM Mirage is "hold", according to Thomson Financial. The wide range of opinion includes two "strong buys" three "buys", nine "holds", one "underperform" and four "sells".
MGM Mirage owns and operates 16 properties in Nevada, Mississippi and Michigan, with 50 percent investment in other properties in New Jersey, Illinois, Nevada and Macau. Its Borgata Hotel and Casino in Atlantic City, owned jointly with Boyd Gaming, has suffered more modest declines than its competition there.
The firm remains aggressive. The MGM Grand New Giza, a development near the pyramids in Cairo, Egypt, is scheduled for a 2013 opening. Financed by an Egyptian developer, it will be managed by MGM Mirage.
Earnings are expected to decline 133 percent this year versus the five percent growth rate predicted for the resorts and casinos industry, according to Thomson Reuters. Next year's expected 67 percent decline compares with a forecast of a 54 percent gain industrywide. The five-year annualised growth rate is projected to be 22 percent versus a 13 percent increase for its peers.
Q. I have owned T Rowe Price New Era Fund because I thought natural resources offered investment potential. What happened? - BK, via the Internet
A Investors must first determine whether they have enough natural resources stocks in other funds they already own without needing one that specialises in them.
If they do feel a need for a natural resources fund, they should understand that this one is unique. It diversifies beyond the usual energy and metals-manufacturing firms into related areas such as energy distribution and infrastructure manufacturing.
But even though this fund correlates less closely to energy prices than its peers, natural resources funds in general have had a bad run.
The $4.17 billion T Rowe Price New Era Fund (PRNEX) is down 49 percent over the past 12 months and down seven percent in annualised return over the past three years. Indicative of the depressed field, both results rank around the midpoint of natural resources funds.
"It is one of the least volatile and least expensive funds in its category, and we like the fact that Charles Ober has been its portfolio manager since 1997 and an analyst for the fund before that," said Michael Herbst, analyst with Morningstar Inc. in Chicago. "Some people view natural resources stocks and commodities as a good inflation hedge, and while I can't say this fund should be used specifically for that, there is logic to it."
Ober, who keeps $100,000 to $500,000 of his own money in the fund, leads a seven-member team of stock analysts. One downside of their diversified approach is that the fund lags its peers when energy stocks really take off, as they do from time to time.
Energy represents 68 percent of the portfolio and industrial materials 23 percent, with smaller concentrations in utilities, business services and financial services. Largest holdings recently included ExxonMobil, Cameron International, Schlumberger, Diamond Offshore Drilling, Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan, Canadian Natural Resources, Royal Dutch Shell plc., Agnico-Eagle Mines and Total SA.
This "no-load" (no sales charge) fund requires a $2,500 minimum initial investment. Its annual expense ratio of 0.66 percent is low for a specialty fund.
Q I took out a loan from my 401(k) company retirement plan and have lost my job. What do I have to do about that loan? - KA, via the Internet
A You must pay it back, because if you fail to do so, the IRS will consider the loan to be a taxable distribution.
In addition, if you are under 59-and-a-half years of age, you will have to pay a 10 percent federal income-tax penalty on the defaulted amount.
"Though it depends on the individual plan, in practice these loans must be repaid within 90 days of leaving the company," said David Wray, president of the Chicago-based Profit Sharing/401(k) Council of America. "Another disadvantage is that 401(k) money borrowed and not paid back doesn't go back into your retirement savings, so you will have that much less invested."
Andrew Leckey answers questions only through the column. Address inquiries to Andrew Leckey, 555 N Central Ave., Suite 302, Phoenix, AZ 85004-1248, or by e-mail at andrewinv@aol.com
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