Growth seen as unlikely for regional tourism
There will be no meaningful growth in the Caribbean tourism market until 2014 at the very least.That’s the worrying conclusion of KPMG’s annual Caribbean Region Financing Survey unveiled at the recent Caribbean Hotel and Tourism Investment Conference in Puerto Rico.KPMG Bermuda partner Steve Woodward reported at the conference’s opening session that a key finding of the survey was that as many as 73 percent of participants were of the view that the biggest challenge for Caribbean tourism in 2012 was the “delicate and fragile” economic recovery.He said most respondents felt that growth would continue to be slow with “meaningful growth returning to the market in 2014 or beyond”.“While there are some signs that the tide may appear to be turning, it should be noted that a recovery in visitor arrivals will take time to translate into a recovery for residential and mixed-use projects in the region. Those hoping for a quick recovery will be disappointed and will have to be patient,” the survey, released yesterday, said.When asked what type of hospitality projects they have been lending to in the past year, some institutions had focused on renovations and refurbishments, others showed “little appetite” for the sector, he said. Others reported a willingness to fund new projects but only with very strong fundamentals.“There is still a component of the lending market that is very cautious, not lending to any projects at all,” the survey said. “Credit terms remain tight when compared to prior years, with some key metrics showing distinct contraction.”Mr Woodward said: “It was clear from the survey that any recovery in visitor arrivals and hotel performance will take time to translate into a recovery for residential and mixed-use projects in the region.”Overall, “patience” seems to be the watchword for the foreseeable future, he said.The Caribbean Financier Confidence Barometer held steady at 5.18 [on a scale of one (bearish) to ten (bullish)] in comparison to 2010 and 2011, which reported ratings of 5.15 and 5.17 respectively.When asked what key global indicator is thought to be the best indicator of a significant turnaround in Caribbean tourism, just under half those surveyed noted stronger general economic recovery while 18 percent noted increased financial market stability and 18 percent noted “other” factors.“When asked if there was enough leadership within the region to make the needed changes within the industry, the majority of institutions felt that there was not,” the survey said..The 2012 Survey highlights lending trends in the region’s hospitality and tourism industry and the outlook for the future of the industry.The survey consulted regional and multinational lending institutions and covered more than 20 markets in the region.Survey respondents represented an aggregate portfolio of US$3-plus billion in total Caribbean real estate and hospitality debt exposure.