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Business ‘visionary’ upbeat on future of global economy

Business ‘visionary’ Keith Fitz-Gerald gave a lecture on the future of the global economy to students at Bermuda College.

The world is on the cusp of an economic revolution and those just entering the workforce have a golden opportunity to cash in on the impending changes.Those were the words global financial expert Keith Fitz-Gerald imparted to Bermuda College students on Friday as part of a weekend trip to the Island.Mr Fitz-Gerald, who is hailed as a business ‘visionary’ by Forbes Magazine and a financial media pundit, also spoke on Saturday to Sandys Rotary members, business executives and government officials, about opportunities in the new global economy, key economic and political drivers for the next several years and the implications and opportunities for Bermuda.While many view the world economic state to be very ‘doom and gloom’, Mr Fitz-Gerald has a more positive outlook.Mr Fitz-Gerald points to the last 300 years explaining that within that time there were several ‘great’ market corrections — including the European financial crisis of 1797 that led to the creation of public companies; the railway panic of 1847, the great crash in 1929 and the NASDAQ crash of 2000.“Every time we had a great crash, we had something innovative show up on the other end,” he said to students. “My sense of looking at history, we are right on the edge of another golden revolution. It may take a few years to get there but you as students are right in the sweet spot. You will come into the workforce at a time when there is unprecedented opportunity. Throughout time, every great period of transition has had a period of angst followed by a golden period of learning, intellectual expansion and wealth.”He went on to explain that the next generation should expect an ever-changing economic landscape.“The global economy is going to continue, it’s just not going to look like the global economy we had in our parents’ generation or our grandparents’ generation,” he said. “It’s going to be a whole new world but it will not stop.”The global economy won’t stop, Mr Fitz-Gerald explained, because of the world’s population of seven billion and growing.That increase will present new challenges but also new opportunities for those that pursue them.According to statistics in his presentation, half the world lives in six countries. China and India’s GDP will be larger than the rest of the OECD combined by 2060. Three out of five people live in two regions — China and BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China), which creates a group which Mr Fitz-Gerald calls “tomorrow’s over takers”.“As students this is the group you want to be focused on,” he said. “Study them carefully, understand who they are, learn to engage that phenomena as you enter the workforce. Our role as older folks will be how to invest our money to best ride that wave.”Those that do embrace the change — companies like Facebook and other technology firms — will fare well.“They are not only acknowledging that it (population shift) happened but they are going out and seeking it,” he said. “Engage the world or risk being left behind.”Another challenge he flips on its head to find an opportunity is based around the ‘peak oil’ argument, which states that once a maximum rate of oil extraction is reached, after which the rate of production is expected to enter terminal decline. Mr Fitz-Gerald applies this theory to the world as a whole.“Because of the number of people we have on the planet today, we have a ‘peak everything’ — peak money, medicine, banking, living arrangements, food, water — that’s what we’ll be dealing with,” he said.That leaves people with the choice of allocating those scarce resources or innovation.That’s where the opportunity for change resides, he explained. “All problems are opportunities in disguise.”“Resource consumption — this is where innovation is going to come from,” he added, explaining that those industries who can capitalise on using new resources in a novel way will thrive.Another theory for opportunity is the rising standard of living for the ‘bottom billion’, ie, those that live on less than $2 a day. Should that group receive an even modest increase of $1 extra a day, businesses stand to benefit.“That’s serious purchasing power. Imagine you are the company that creates the product that they need,” he said, adding that, for example, cell phone manufacturers are poised to cash in.“Follow the money, the momentum and innovation — know where it is going and why. Figure out how to engage the people in that area and your career is going to be fabulous no matter what industry.”

Business ‘visionary’ Keith Fitz-Gerald gave a lecture on the future of the global economy to students at Bermuda College. <I></I>
Business ‘visionary’ Keith Fitz-Gerald gave a lecture on the future of the global economy to students at Bermuda College.
Business ‘visionary’ Keith Fitzgerald, seen in the background here, gave a lecture on the future of the global economy to students at Bermuda College.